LAST WEEK was a pretty funky Friday and this writer is predicting that today might well turn out to be similar. Because today’s the day we’re betting Yahoo will say ‘yup, absolutely’ to Microsoft, and laugh all the way to the bank.
There’s been no shortage of BS ever since Microsoft said it would give ivory, apes and peacocks in exchange for ownership of Yahoo.
Some said there could be a counterbid. A counterbid? Trumping a 62 per cent premium for a company in stasis? From which genius? Britney Spears?
Others said Yahoo could enter into a partnership with Google. Oh yeah, because the G-men could really do with a regulator checking the rules of Monopoly.
Some said a VC firm could come in. More sensible, but not at this price and not in this market.
Nope, Yahoo will say yes, just as PeopleSoft and BEA caved in to Yahoo. When the game’s up, it’s up. Pack up your bags. It’s been a great ride. This horse has run its race. There’s nothing left in the tank. The fat lady has sung. The rest is silence.
Why do I suggest that it might be today?
Part one: deep research. Michael Arrington on Techcrunch says there is a big meeting of the Yahoo board today. It’s more than likely that there was a big meeting within hours of the Microsoft bid letter and the call was to sleep on it and not betray excitement at the prospect of a neverending supply of hookers and gin, yachts, sports cars, philanthropy and the rest. If Arrington is right, today could be the shortest board meeting in history, ending in a chorus of affirmatives.
Part two: deep science. Friday is a great day for making big, controversial announcements. Yahoo can tell the world it’s saying yes and then head off for the weekend, safe in the knowledge that most journalists and other pests will be too lazy to follow up and too befuddled to ask any tricky questions on Monday. After that, the story is stale bread.
So put a fiver on Yahoo saying ‘yup’ today and double it up with a bet that the regulators won’t have the cojones, the right or the wherewithal to block the transaction. This deal is done. µ
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