Nothing is impossible for the person who doesn't have to do it - Weller's Law
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NAND flash, why does Intel bother?
AT THE BOTTOM of the end-of-year figures for the troubled NAND flash memory market there was the poor performance of Intel.
In the numbers you see the rise of Samsung, with Toshiba fast gaining ground, and one has to wonder what Intel is doing in there.
The NAND market is punch drunk after a major downturn in demand last year. Global NAND flash memory revenue in the third quarter rose to $3.94 billion, up 25.5 percent from $3.1 billion in the second quarter.
This year NAND Flash makers shut down 200mm wafer production lines and moved to end oversupply. This boosted prices, but it still made for vicious market competition.
Intel and Micron Technology have a joint NAND venture and, while Micron has done okay overall, Intel continues to lag in the rankings.
Generally Intel NAND is made for its own SSD lines. Intel has good sales with its SSD but it cannot seem to achieve the margins to make its NAND production worthwhile.
This has led many analysts to wonder if Intel will flog off its NAND flash memory line and outsource the lot to one of its competitors who will offer it a better deal.
It has already walked away from the NOR and other bits of memory manufacture that can be made by cheap and cheerful Far Eastern factories at lower cost, so what is to stop it from moving away from NAND?
Well, there is one good reason for Intel to stay in the NAND market, at least for another year. NAND flash memory is starting to look as if it will be in short supply.
Consumer devices are sucking up all the spare production there is and prices are looking like they will be rising again.
Analysts think that NAND memory makers will be making money hand over fist next year. The success of SSDs, which will mean big bucks for Intel, is dependant on costs going lower. If NAND prices go up too much then its possible that Chipzilla will not be able to make this happen. µ
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Have you tried buying any Intel SLC SSDs recently?
The best delivery estimate I can get is "at least 8 _more_ weeks" - which sucks when you needed 10, 6 weeks ago
Wow. Brilliant. You should realize that's the way it's been for over 30 years. There are always plenty of people who have a "good enough" PC right now. But there are plenty of others who bought their last one before you and they now have a dog. Not to mention, a lot of corporate PCs that are now long in the tooth after putting off upgrading in 2008 & 2009 and will also benefit from a Windows 7 upgrade. Everyone has different timelines. Did you ever watch the waves come in at the beach ? That's the way it is with PCs. So hold onto your PC for now. You'll join another wave a few years from now.
I do. I would upgrade but I want something much better than what I already have (dual core, plenty of RAM for a 32bit OS).
I'd like an Intel i7-920 cpu, good RAM, USB3, and an SSD cheap hard drive. All at a fair price.
That's the same story for millions of us.
Intel - you are sitting on a goldmine. To cash in all you have to do is lower i7 920 price by 30%, lower x58 motherboards by 30%, USB3 and SSD's also lower by 30%.
Intel I want to give you some lovely cash, but I want to give you 30% less than you are asking for ;-)
If 2010 is 30% cheaper than 2009 I might buy a new pc. If not then I can wait until 2011, as will millions of others.
Large corporations see beyond the end of their nose when it comes to losses now and future earnings later. Armchair market analysts were laughing at Microsoft's attempts to enter the console market against giants like Sony, and yet in the end they're beginning to reap the long-term gains of it. Likewise, Intel will be able to compete in the flash market later, with the technology they develop now.
Unfortunately, the opposite line of thought seems to permeate the general populace and many lesser companies, which might explain the recent economic crises.
Me thinks the author is only looking at rankings for total output instead of profitability. Intel certainly puts out less wafers than Toshiba or Samsung, but you can bet it's been better ASPs as part of the SSD market than giving it all to Apple at below DRAMExchange prices.
One thing that is often overlooked by analyst is that if cost for Nand go up it does not impact Intel they are getting the material at manufacturing cost, and making a leading edge SSD. If higher cost keeps others from entering the SSD market that is just a bigger piece of the pie for Intel, allows them to establish dominance in another field. Does not sound like a bad strategy to me
SSDs will NOT be a success until the prices are sorted out. charging a ripoff price will prevent universal acceptance leaving them an exclusive purchase for fools only.