Apple market share gets restated
APPLE FANBOYS have been banging on for months about how their expensive toys are taking over the world.
The 'proof' they've been pointing to as they jump up and down has been the appearance of the Mac OSX figures appearing on the web, which is taken as a key indicator by Net Applications.
Recently this figure was quoted to be as high as ten per cent, meaning that one in ten machines in the world allegedly was a Mac. Linux had one per cent and the Vole had 88 per cent, with OS/2, various BSDs, BeOS and assorted hobbyist lashups presumably making up the other one per cent.
Common sense would have suggested that these figures were impossible, but the estimates have been used to claim that Apple was fast becoming a market leader.
It would have to be a significant market leader too. Macs are mostly a feature of the North American market, its penetration in Europe is nowhere near as big as in the US. Since Macs are not sold in any of the high volume regions such as China, Russia and the rest of the Far East, about a quarter to a half of sales in the US would have to be Macs, which cannot be the case.
No one seems to have worked this out, and I still get emails from fanboys who recite the ten per cent figure as an article of faith and who seem to think that Apple's black shirted buffoons will be goose-stepping their way over Redmond any day now.
Net Applications too must have been wondering, because it started to look at the way it did its sums. Overnight Apple's market share estimate has been slashed by more than 50 percent to well under 5 per cent of the operating system market. Windows has shot up from the high 80s to over 93 per cent of the market. And the Linux market share is now closer to two percent.
When looked at in terms of world supply, Apple's Iphone is a nonstarter too. If you look at the tame Apple press you would think that Apple has control of the smartphone market. No, it doesn't. It has about two per cent of the smartphone market worldwide. The winner by a long chalk is Nokia.
So where does this idea that Apple is important come from? It is partly the tech press in the US that feeds the world a steady diet of positive Apple Mac news... mostly typed on Macs.
There are journalists out there who have never used a PC in their lives and yet their opinion on the latest Mac gadget is taken as gospel by the great unwashed. The news agenda about Apple, particularly in North America, is being set by... Apple. For example, when did you last see an article about Nokia's worldwide success?
Stories that show that Apple has been completely unable to penetrate Russia - where the fruit themed retailer was actually laughed out of a press conference by hacks who pointed out that they would have to work for nearly three months to buy even an Ipod - don't appear in the Western IT press.
Neither has Apple's failure to penetrate markets like China been reported - where, ironically, its gizmos are made in what we the West would call sweatshop conditions.
True, Apple has been making profits at a time when few PC companies have been able to manage it, but are its sales volumes truly significant?
Even with Net Applications' revision, I am still not convinced that five per cent is a particularly valid figure either. The crucial problem is Linux, which should have a larger footprint than slightly under two per cent.
Linux takeup is underestimated because some users, a not insignificant and growing share of users, buy systems preloaded with Microsoft operating systems and promptly install Linux instead. Linux desktops are getting some serious use by companies in Eastern Europe, India, China and other asian countries. These two factors would add up to more than Apple's numbers in North America, I suspect.
Apple is not the world shaking empire that it's marketeers would have you believe. In fact, if the number of news stories was based on market share, the outfit would hardly get any coverage at all. µ
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this is going to get some Fanboi backlash action, no question.
but this is a correct article. I live in the UK and know 1 person who has a mac, out of about 300 people I know of.
The point most news are being criticized here reflect the above average quality of apple products. The article just confirms a fact known by all, microsoft and windows OS dominate the market.
This is a a massive problem that get inflated by idiots such as the one who wrote this article that instead of stating the fact the most computers today are using an overpriced and poorly designed OS.
Furthermore the reason that people talk about the iphone/ipod and mac OS is because they were revolutionary products. Off curse there market worldwide market share is not significant but if you normalize (as any person that as any notion of statistics, which is not the case of the author) for a number of factors then the values change dramatically.
If a person earns a certain salary as stated in the article, we cant afford to buy a apple product. So the numbers should instead look at the number of people that can afford one and from those persons how many do have a apple product.
This is not say that market share is important, its not, this is in fact one of the reasons why Mac OS is safer then windows. Again the importance is that apple continues to produce above average products and revolutionary, that is why the get so many reviews.
" Off curse there market worldwide market share is not significant but if you normalize (as any person that as any notion of statistics, which is not the case of the author) for a number of factors then the values change dramatically"
HAHAHAHA!!
Seriously, I stopped reading after that. If you 'normalize for a number of factors'?
Sorry bub, but 5% worldwide (estimated) is 5% no matter what you normalize it against. Your argument that the salary has to be factored doesn't hold, I just don't see 80% of the world population using Linux, which is FREE (most of them at least).
However if you factor stupidity, you can get to the conclusion that only around 5% of the world population is stupid enough to pay more for less, that's something interesting isn't it?
Back to the original topic, I have no idea how they get such figures but IMHO India and China have a sh*tload of people, so I guess it's a matter of time that Apple marketshare will get dwarfed by Linux... unless they all suddenly become rich and stupid.
Yours truly,
- The Flamebait
So apple is the driving force bewhind adds, I believe we all knew this.
Speaking of adds your pop-ups your popup adds. with timed out page load is illeagel. Forcing readers to stare at page fir 5 seconds. Is unlawful . I already put in complaont about your ill gotten popups . Popups are OK Fake wait for page to load is illegeal ./ I have proven that delay for loading is preset time setup by you vguys/
"Furthermore the reason that people talk about the iphone/ipod and mac OS is because they were revolutionary products."
Are you seriously trying to suggest that there was no such thing as a an MP3 player or a mobile phone before apple came along?
No, i think people talk about these things because of massive PR campaigns and a tame press.
"is a a massive problem that get inflated by idiots such as the one who wrote this article that instead of stating the fact the most computers today are using an overpriced and poorly designed OS. "
Surely you mean OSX right? I got my Win 7 for under £100...seems awefully cheap too me....and my custom PC cost £500....
...now for £600 i could by .oooo....a Mac Mini...OH JOY of joys!
...tho I'd still need a copy of windows to actually do anything on it,..
8)
...how could i forget "Aug. 6, 1997: Apple Rescued — by Microsoft"
http://www.wired.com/thisdayintech/2009/08/dayintech_0806/
While I could afford to buy Macs, there is NO WAY I will ever buy one! I build my machines, so build quality is FAR superior to the one offered by Snapple. Not only, I also get to choose WHAT I put inside my machines, which isn't always the case the fruit themed toy maker! Oh, and all that at half the price of ANY mac! Yeah, I do earn some money, but I like to waste it on booze and pr0n!
Big problem (for Stapple) is, that I'm one of those guys that friends, relatives and friends of the friends and relatives ask for a suggestion when they buy some kind of hardware. This year alone I guess I spoiled a dozen MAC sales....
</mac
And now, bash me for this: the only piece of hardware running a posix is my router! Everything else runs on some windows flavour! Long live the vole...!
is what percentage of the world THAT HAVE LEGAL copies of their operating system are using what. The new statistical bias towards China, for example, ignores the high prevalence of pirated Windows copies in that location.
Why is this a more relevant number? If you are an advertiser or software developer then you want people to BUY stuff from you. People using pirated copies of Windows in an internet cafe are unlikely to do this.
legal copies? ...vast majority of MS profits come from business licensing ....not off the shelf sales..
I've had pirated windows since 1995...and only now did I pay for Win7... so MS got money off me finally.. Apple never did.
If 95% if the world knows only Windows...pirate of legit...I guess even if 10-15% actually buy it..MS makes $$$
Good business I say...trust me i'm an accountant.
Apple...got 5% of legit users...wow! a whole 5%!!!!
...Apple too much credit. The amount of people that use their pirated software is "significant" (considering we're talking about an insignificant group). How many people do you know that have bought QTime Pro? I don't know anyone. But mac users that have been using it? For as long as ten years, if not more. OSX is no different, although since it ships with the computer they get to sell more of that.
Well said Will.
I used to work at Microsoft and even there they had fanboys.
If you speak to an American then you would think that iPhone and Macs were everywhere.
The Apple media inches are completely disproportionate to their sales. However, maybe we should be congratulating their marketing folks.
Your numbers are off, and you're missing the point besides. In countries like China the percentage of ripped-off copies of Windows is huge (even in companies, not just private sales). Pointing at statistics that show a bias towards absolute numbers of users (ignoring the number of actual machines, many being shared cafe devices, and most being ripped off) isn't useful when it comes to the job which these numbers were designed for, i.e. selling stuff.
Depending on how you weight these things Apple has between a 5 and 10% share of the world market. You'd have to pull off similar statistical jiggey pokery to push it much higher than that, but no-one is denying that Microsoft has a larger market share.
The number that is ACTUALLY important to advertisers and developers is what proportion of the market might buy stuff from them if they targeted a particular OS. Trying to sell to people without significant income is a highway to nothing (accountancy should have taught you that).
The numbers that upset Microsoft, and the host of fanbois, is the number of copies of an OS that they ACTUALLY sell, and how that compares to the market (why would they spend so much time and effort with WGA, activation etc if they don't mind giving their software away free?). If Apple's market share improves then more developers and advertisers will put their efforts into products targeting Apple systems. The market share going from 5 to 10% (or from 2.5 to 5%) shows them that this is a growth market that should be investigated, and reassuringly to them people who do buy Apple tend to have more money.
Microsoft know that if they're not careful then a critical point will be reached where it's no-longer an advantage to buy Windows because you'll get the same or equivalent software and drivers on the Mac platform also, and their market share will erode further.
So what we have here is a attempt to disguise or minimize the fact that OS X is a growth market, and if it gains enough market share in the developed world then it will also get ripped off in China etc, which will be of no interest to anyone who actually wants to sell stuff.
This just goes to show that the aggregate "world-level" statistics are of very limited value. Consider if Apple had 40% share in the US and 0.1% in China -- this might be an aggregate world total of 5% but would be a significant game-changer, given that most of those Chinese licenses are probably pirated Windows copies...
As they say, lies, damn lies, and statistics.
@Luis, Quantity over quality? LOLL, that's funny, specially when there's a lot of cracked Macbooks and a lot of exploding/overheating Iphones.
Although I'm in tech and engineering, I work in an area where I intersect the bullshit businesses - marketing morons, televisual trollopes, journalism jackasses, design dumbasses, fashion f***tards - on a regular basis. You cannot move for Apples.
We need them too, for slightly different reasons.
I have to say warranty service from Apple is uniformly excellent - but I then have relatively little to compare it to, since our Precisions, Elitebooks, xw's and VAIO's so rarely need warranty service in contrast to the "oh, that one's in the 'shop again?" Macs.
So much for quality eh, Luis?
... even though OS X use may be around 5% and Apple do get a lot of press coverages out of proportion to their size I think it is not out of proportion to their importance as leaders and trend setters (although combined iPod/iPhone/OS X uses make up hundreds of millions of people so they are still "big") but they get the press coverage not just because of a brilliant PR department but their products are so desirable that people want to write about them and people want to read about them.
Many windows users say that they think Apple is overpriced but at the same time say that Apple should release OS X for PCs showing their desire for it and if they would release OS X for PC how it would "hit" Microsoft... it seems everyone has forgotten Steve Jobs saying "For Apple to win, Microsoft don't have to lose"...
Apple can be considered niche, but it is still a big niche and they seem to draw a lot of hatred but I think it is jealousy from people not willing/too scared to spend the money as they always follow the Apple stories, which if of no interest as so small a company why follow the stories? For years, when I was a Windows user, I followed Apple stories, and desired to buy a Mac but was a little scared than I took the plunge and spent £980 on the mid range iMac with an upgrade to 4Gb in January and I am very happy with it. Yes, people will say I am mad, but the extra cost for the design is worth it. No big box under the desk for me with dozens of cables and it's so quiet. It took 6 months to pay off my credit card but I am much happier as a OS X user than a Windows user... even with the little frustrations with the little differences in doing things in OS X from how they are done in Windows. so after all that rambling, Apple = desirable, trend setters/leaders = press coverage. Nokia may be bigger (in number of phones out there) but they are boring so won't get the press coverage. It's as simple as that.
Perhaps the discrepancy in perceived numbers and importance of Apple users is related to what has been discovered about other cult-like groups of people.
Cults involve removal of choice, and having decisions made for you. Post-decision dissonance helps you boost your evaluation of your shiny new Apple product ("this MUST be the best, because I can't buy groceries or eat for the rest of this month!). You want some media, you just need to go to iTunes; you want a gadget, you just need to go to the Apple-store. You want to configure a computer? You don't need to, as Macs and iPhones are already pre-configured by Steve Jobs Himself for you; you just have to comply. No more hard decisions, and no more choices are necessary.
Critical thoughts (like "do we really have 10% market share?) are not compatible with cult membership, therefore this could easily result in the "Apple is everything" thinking referred to in this article. It seems Jobs' well known "reality distortion field" can extend to many Apple users (not just those witnessing press conferences/product announcements).
(At least Linux users seem to have no problems admitting to their currently lower amount of market share!).
"In fact, if the number of news stories was based on market share, the outfit would hardly get any coverage at all."
And yet here you are adding to our coverage.
<evil
for being more reflective of the US than of the world-wide market. However, the statistics released by StatCounter for OS market share during the last year (http://preview.tinyurl.com/nrmzmt ), would seem to indicate that 5 % for Mac is about right....
Henri
I sell my software products all over the world, in many languages. The USA is over 80% of my business because people are honest enough to buy something they want and they realize that if you pay somebody for something they might keep improving it and supplying support. We sell more copies per year to inhabitants of the Island of New Caledonia than all of southeast asia combined. You probably don't know where New Caledonia is or have any idea how many people live there. So the sales penetration to those awfully honest people on that little island is terrific whilst the pirates in asia don't buy squat. I say to hell with all of the pirate countries, thank goodness for comparatively honest places like the Nederlands, USA, Japan and a few others. As an intellectual worker I despire the attitudes of most of humanity that think because something has no physical component it has no value. If the writers, musicians, programmers, game designers, and others have no way of making a living in their countries, those places will have a brain drain and all will end up in the few places where people respect intellectual achievements, not punish them. So good luck holding onto your best and brightest china, the USA has been living on foreign brains for centuries and will continue to do so until you clean up your act!
Not being a Fan boy of anybody, it would help if you folks ALL got your numbers right. While I think the market share numbers for OS they have been adjusted are probably much closer to the truth--you then take a whack at the iPhone without backing up YOUR numbers.
According to Gartner (http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112), with essentially a single product, actually has bout 10% world-wide market share in the smartphone sector as of 4Q08 more than double what it was the previous year. While Nokia still holds the top spot with 40%, it lost 10% over the last year--with went to RIM and Apple. If you want to discount this out of hand, you are completely missing the point and don't help your position.
Now, perhaps if you people (Mac AND Microsoft fan boys) would prefer to actually document your numbers backed by credible sources, we could have a legitimate discussion. No, Apple is NOT going to take over Microsoft any day soon, but that doesn't mean you should discount (nor should Microsoft) the things they have achieved.
That's my attempt to help responsible and even-handed reporting.