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Windows Phone 7 is set to outgrow Android and IOS over the next few years
WINDOWS PHONE 7 (WP7) is set to outgrow the rival mobile operating systems over the next few years, according to a report released by the International Data Corporation (IDC).
Microsoft's late-comer smartphone OS is expected to grow its market share from two per cent in 2010 to 3.8 per cent this year, a downward revision of IDC's previous forecast in March of 5.5 per cent.
That's a relatively tiny share of the market, particularly for an OS that many people would consider a potential third rival to join in the battle between Google's Android and Apple's IOS, but the real strength of Windows Phone 7 will appear during 2012 to 2015, the report predicts, when IDC expects to see WP7 market share increase significantly to 20.3 per cent.
This is also a slight revision downwards from the 20.9 per cent IDC had previously predicted, but it still equates to a compound annual growth rate of 82.3 per cent, the fastest growth by far of all the mobile operating systems on the market.
This will put Windows Phone 7 in second place behind Android, which is expected to see its market share rise from 38.9 per cent this year to 43.8 per cent in 2015, a compound annual growth rate of 23.7 per cent.
Apple's IOS is set to lose some of its market share to Google and Microsoft, dropping from 18.2 per cent in 2011 to 16.9 per cent in 2015, ensuring that Windows Phone 7 will have a comfortable lead. The Research In Motion (RIM) Blackberry OS will also see a small drop from 14.2 per cent to 13.4 per cent over the next few years, according to the IDC forecast.
The biggest loser, however, will be Symbian. IDC expects its market share of 20.6 per cent this year to plummet to just 0.1 per cent by 2015. This is not exactly unexpected, given the recent deal between Nokia and Microsoft, but we won't really see the impact from the switchover from Sybmian to Windows Phone 7 until 2012.
What is interesting to note is that Symbian's losses won't all transfer over to gains for Windows Phone 7. If we add Symbian's existing market share to that of Windows Phone 7 we get a unified share of 24.4 per cent. Yet Microsoft will get only 20.3 per cent of the market in 2015, which, even with Symbian's remaining at 0.1 per cent, leaves four per cent unaccounted for. It seems that Android will gobble this up in its continuing expansion.
IDC anticipates that the overall smartphone market will grow by 55 per cent this year, with global shipments of 472 million devices, up from the 305 million shipped in 2010. This will rise even further by 2015, nearly doubling to 982 million units, which shows there's plenty more room for growth in the smartphone arena. µ
Tags: Software
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Here it is 2012 and WP7 is down to 1.3% and the research organizations are still predicting it will overtake IOS! That's a far cry from the predictions. Nokia sales are so bad they, like Microsoft, are refusing to release figures.
Hw long can Nokia last?
When Nokia wakes up they will move to Android.
The WP7 market share prediction is pure illusion. IDC never got it right in the past so why they should do it now? IDC predicted in 2006 36% market for the Microsoft mobile OS in 2010. Everybody who still really believes in the success of WP7 should go and see a doctor. WP7 is not good enough to catch up with Android and iOS. But this can be changed with Mango. But more important, Microsoft just made a HUGE strategical failure with buying Skype. With that move they declared war to the carriers. That was the best thing to ensure that WP7 won't find its way into the market. With no carrier support you won't see significant handheld sales. Google learned that with the Nexus 1 painfully. And betting on Nokia is a huge risk, see here why: http://www.brightsideofnews.com/news/2011/6/7/nokia-2011-analysis-the-heart-has-stopped.aspx
The predicted market shares for a number of competitors will bear a striking correlation to the present revenue breakdown for the market research firm.
Apparently Microsoft's IDC spend is on an uptick.
This article is just a troll. Palm had the greatest market share of any PDA and the wankers on the board at Plam decided it would be a good idea to sleep with the enemy. Goodbye Palm. Lost their support base with one stupid move. Nokia is not too smart, but they have the largest market share of any phone manufacture because they make phones for people who want phones. The smart phone market is growing but is still not a huge market segment. Nokia took a bribe from MS because they needed the money. Short term thinking - just like Palm. WP7 is a dog, and Nokia may well die of flea bites, yet.
Good laughing start for friday.
WHAT!! What is IDC is smoking?? crack??
WP7 to over take Android. From what I see of WP7 and the release 'cycle' of the product, I doubt it will even get to 5% market share at the rate its going.
From the first WP7 release, its been 12 months and we are yet to see major updates to the platform? No couple of little updates but mostly bug fixes.
WP7 needs to drop big features real fast and real quick.
iOS and android are the clear leaders, webos has a chance to get a big chunk of the market share, WP7 just isn't getting it quick enough to gain market share!
I lost all respect for IDC based on this report!
Didn't IDC predict soaring sales for the Intel Itanium processor? I guess that it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
What are the sites coming too?
Those engadget boys are Pro-Apple
You guys are going Pro-MS
Why don't the both of you stop licking corporate ASS & give us some unbiased views/reviews for a change!?
And Windows Phone 7!? WTF then why is MS releasing Windows 8? Why WinPhone 7.5 update? why the hoop-la-boo?
IDC is smoking crack or what!?
Not another article talking about "growth rate" for something starting at nothing beating the growth rate of establishment players. A few years ago iPhone was the growth story, since it started from scratch. Last year Android's growth was the big story, now they are seizing on WP7.
Well, from a measly 2% of the market and the fact that Windows Mobile is being discontinued its easy to forecast major growth for WP7. Nokia switching over to WP7 may help drive growth as well, but Nokia's so screwed up now I'm not sure one could even say with certainty they'll exist in 2015!
I predict that iOS5 will experience astounding growth from now until the end of the year, and Windows 8 will do likewise in the months after it is released. Duh...
I watched the Keynote when they released Windows Phone 7 and although, I was impressed, I wasn't impressed enough to bounce from WebOS to Windows Phone 7. I went to Android. I agree that it is good for consumers to have Windows Phone 7 as a competitor in the top three, but the next version of the software (and Nokia Hardware) will have to be very compelling and different from their first offerings.
Because apple/ google will sit on their laurels for 3 years
This article is full of fail
Personally I see this alliance as the blind jockey (Microsoft) riding the 3 legged Wonder (Nokia) at he 3:30 at kempton. The odds are 500-1 so its a certain fail.
Hahaha Nokia....get real what Nokia...oh that zombie company making 1999 Mobile Phone tech....this one you mean ?
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2386538,00.asp
Il,l say it again hahahahah
ps "exploits arent helping secure your information on the droids".....the only reason Wp7 is not hacked is because it has no market share.
I own a Droid and a WP7 and currently WP7 is good and I like it very much but it wont be complete until Mango in the fall when Microsoft starts to separate themselves from all the other smartphones. Then bragging rights happen because there will be things we can do on WP7 that you cant do on iPhone or Androids.
Hardware wise all smart phones are in the ballpark of one another. WP7 will get a front facing camera soon which is pretty much the only HARDWARE feature separating the smart phones. Screen resolution is nothing special when your screen is under 5" Retina is nice but others can have it too its not exclusive. Hardware wise no one is superior to one another unless you like broken glass and dropping calls then get an iPhone.
This leaves software and guess what Microsoft is a software company with a few years of expertise in being developer and consumer friendly. Its only a matter of time before they get the software perfect. Its close but needs some minor refinements.
Note that MAC users shut up after Windows 7? They dont say anything because Windows is once again superior to MAC. Now MAC will try to add a few bells and whistles with Lion but Windows 8 looks that much better than anything MAC has coming so expect Apple to start copying Microsoft. Because if you think the iPhone is incredible Ill point out it looks like Windows 3.1 to me with touch ability.
Apple is AOL of today telling consumers what they want and how they should experience it. Just like AOL couldn't understand Java iPhone doesn't understand Flash.
Android will be tough its very good but like Linux its getting fragmented. Nothing like incompatibility to ruin the parade and the exploits arent helping secure your information on the droids.
Fundamentally, this report is saying that IDC does not expect Nokia to disappear. That being the case, WP7 inevitably has to massively increase market share.
I like WP7 - just thought I'd get that out of the way first.
OK, it's probably impossible to have your crystal ball see forward to 2015 because technology changes at such a fast rate that anything can happen.
However, I for one will be happy to see Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 in the top 3, although I don't really care if they are 1st, 2nd or 3rd. As long as they are there, then we all have better choices as consumers. Apples iOS gives you a very closed ecosystem. Android gives you a very open ecosystem. Microsoft WP7 gives you something in between.
Whiel Windows Phone may look like a nobody now, one hour of playing with this and you can realize any unbiased person will see how this will attract any iPhone or Android user. The UI is so fluid flowing and fast. Just have an open mind. To the other poster, why you fanboy troll, are you really afraid of WP7. You dont have to. The people who are and should be scared are the teams at Apple and Google.
This article is as full of crap as a Chistmas Goose! Anyone who believes any of this is dumb as dirt!
Thank You.
How much did Microsoft have to pay for this report?