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Android to rule nearly half of smartphone market by end of 2012
SOFTWARE SHOP Google's Android operating system will rule nearly half of the smartphone market by the end of 2012, according to the latest report by the dart-throwers at Gartner.
It notes that 67 million Android phones shipped in 2010, giving it a market share of 22.7 per cent. The market research firm expects that to rise to 180 million and a 38.5 per cent market share. 2012 will see the largest market share of 49.2 per cent, with 310 million units shipped.
By 2015 Android's market share will drop slightly to 48.8 per cent, but unit sales increase to 539 million, Gartner predicts. That's not to far above a forecast by ABI Research, which believes Android will reach 45 per cent market share by 2016.
In contrast, Apple's IOS platform looks set to see high growth this year, but will then lose market share over subsequent years. In 2011 it will have a market share of 19.4 per cent, up from 15.7 per cent last year. It will ship almost double the amount of the Iphones and Ipads, 90 million compared to 46 million. In 2012 its market share drops to 18.9 million, despite shipping 119 million devices, and by 2015 it will fall further to 17.2 per cent, despite sales nearly doubling to 190 million units.
The long slow death of Nokia's Symbian operating system looks set to accelerate this year, with a huge drop in market share from 37.6 per cent to 19.2 per cent. This is expected to drop further in 2012 to 5.2 percent and by 2015 Symbian will have only 0.1 per cent, shipping a meager 661,000 devices.
Despite the deal with Microsoft, it won't pick up the full extent of Symbian's losses. Windows Phone 7 had a market share of 4.2 per cent in 2010, which will grow slightly to 5.6 per cent this year. In 2012 it will nearly double to 10.8 per cent, yet Symbian drops by close to four times. By 2015 the Windows Phone platform is expected to nearly double again to 19.5 per cent of the market.
RIM is also expected to lose some market share, down from 16 per cent last year to 13.4 per cent this year. Gartner predicts this will drop further to 12.6 per cent and 11.1 per cent by 2012 and 2015 respectively.
It's interesting to note that the report suggests that Windows Phone 7 will come in second place, while Apple's operating system will fall into third position. This doesn't mean Apple will be selling fewer smartphones, however, as smartphones will replace regular feature phones for many people by then, with a total of 1.1 billion shipped in 2015, compared to less than 300 million in 2010.
The INQUIRER is endlessly amused by market share forecasts that include one or even two digits to the right of the decimal point. We think that means they threw darts multiple times. µ
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Seriously some comments here do show a lack of vision.
I agree that predicting market share percentages to .1 of a precent in such a volatile and imature market is utter nonsense. However i think it´s very unwise to bet against MS in the mid to long term.
The deal with Nokia is simply genius to me. How many loyal nokia users have dumped the brand because as they moved up to smart phones the OS nokia had to offer was poor,clunky, old fashion looking? Those same people have often then had there first experience with other makes build quailty which is often a long way from Nokia´s best.
When they come to the end of there contract I am betting many will jump back to a Nokia if MS gets the eco system right and Nokia gets the build and styling/design right. To me until Nokia releases their WM7 phones what we are curently seeing in terms of sales is a drop in the ocean. If nokia could keep there market share at almost 20% with the frankly embarasing OS they have been punting out there sales will sky rocket on windows.
Places your bets.
I really hope this is right, that apple will fall down to 3rd (although seriously doubt windows phone gets there, all windows products are crap) because of the picky fight of Jobs with flash.
Seriously, I'm a digital artist, for me apple computers are the best for my business, but to think he can throw down Flash, I hope he crashes and burns.
I won't have a apple device until flash support comes, I'll have to go to a Android phone when my symbian device stops preforming (Nokia fan for 15 years) since Nokia now joined hands with "Microcrap"!
Blackberry?!? what's that, a fruit?
What's up with all these Android will rule the earth articles??
Sure Android will likely gain some market share in 2011 but as soon as Blackberry OS7 arrives it's all downhill for them from there.
BBOS7 uses QNX so it is definately faster and more stable than android.
It will have native support for Android apps so migration to a better OS will be seamless.
Mark my words, when QNX arrives for smartphones buying anything else will seem silly.
Q the MS haters, i dont get it there just a company nobody forces anyone to buy MS do they ?
So.. after all these years. Mayan people actually predict the world end because of Androids??? Hmmmm....
It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Windows Phone X might become the second-best seller in the future but, given the shockingly bad performance of Microsoft offerings in the smartphone sector thus far, only a 100% certified cretin would state that as certain.
Also, anyone who quotes percentages for 2015 predictions with 0.1% accuracy has lost the plot entirely. You'd be lucky to see actually results within +/- 3%.
On this showing, Gartner has no credibility.
We already know that Windows Phone 7 has flopped.
ComScore says Microsoft's mobile marketshare is still plummeting. In freefall. In the past 3 months, Microsoft's share went from 9% down to 7.9% and is still falling.
Most of the estimates include Windows Mobile, Windows Phone 7, and its replacement, Windows 8 which we now know will run on phones.
Every time one of Microsoft's mobile operating systems fails, it just does another platform reboot and starts again as if nothing happened.