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Microsoft won’t be dominating the OS much longer
SOFTWARE COLOSSUS Microsoft's dominance of the IT industry will disappear within five years, as it loses its grip on a facet of the industry where smartphone devices will be king.
This is according to Sven Gossel, speaking at the Infosecurity conference in London and whose company, Charismatics, was responsible for the first identity management application on the IPhone.
Microsoft is just not quick enough, compared to the companies that are pushing swiftly into the smartphone market with Android, and previously Apple with the IPhone.
He said, "At Mobile World Congress in 2009, more than a year ago, Microsoft said that it was going to have the app store in June 2009. Well, it didn't."
"Microsoft now with this Windows Phone Series 7 won't be ready before early 2011. So time is everything in this market. The fact that it delays this will have more impact than it coming up with a new device."
"The reason is simple. If Microsoft is going to win this game, it has to come out with something uniquely different, with a device that it introduces."
He mocked the Vole's text messaging device Kin that Microsoft announced a week ago, calling it a "device for kids", saying there's not enough money to be made from the devices.
Gossel added, "The critical issue is whether it is really able to stretch itself on all these different verticals to be successful. Its current success is based on another strategy, being directly focusing on the corporate market - a different story."
Mobile operating systems are now more important than actual handset devices. In 2007 Apple and RIM had very little market share, but in the space of two years they have both penetrated the market.
Even Nokia has said that smartphones will replace mobile phones, and Gossel agreed, saying that it will happen within five years.
According to Gartner, Microsoft had only an eight per cent market share of smartphones in 2009, and only due to HTC and T-Mobile in Germany where RIM wasn't successful. HTC has now virtually dropped Windows Mobile in favour of Android.
The big problem for Microsoft now is that the emerging markets are going for smartphones rather than laptops and PCs, which the beast of Redmond has such a hold on, as those are generally cheaper.
Gossel said, "Smartphones will dominate the market and take it from Microsoft. That is where the critical point is." µ
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Dear all,
thanks for all sharing your opinion on this matter. I believe the important part of my message to the press was the fact that form factors will be more and more different and the glue in-between applications, platforms and hardware vendors will strongly increase.
Remember the press conference was before HP announced their take-over of Palm. Nobody mentioned webOS here - and today HP may decide to drop Windows Mobile. The market is moving and nobody knows where we are in 5 years.
MS dominating Desktops? Ok, but they have less than 30% market share these days. In 2010 people will probably buy more smartphones than Desktops, Notebooks and Netbooks all together! Smartphones? What is going to be the difference?
Think out of your box - the iPad is just the start of hundreds of devices that only a few of us will need. But this is exactly the point of the matter.
I think it's brave to try and guess where we'll be in 5 years time.
The fact that Apple and Android can shake up the phone market in a short period of time should point to the fact that Microsoft could do the same.
Microsoft's very rich. It has a tonne of engineering resource. It has strong partnerships with device manufacturers and it has a number of platforms that it can bring to the phone. It also has a staggering array of cloud based services.
Sure, Windows Mobile today is limping along behind Apple and Android.
Microsoft knows that, has said as much and started from scratch with Windows Phone 7.
Do you think they'll just "give up" if it doesn't succeed V1? No. They'll do just what they did with Xbox. They'll keep on banging away at it.
"No copy and paste" - how long do you think it takes to fix that?
"Too limited APIs" - how long do you think it takes to fix that?
It's a mistake to underestimate Microsoft. Various companies have made that mistake in the past. The smartest thing Apple/Google can do here is to capitalise on their lead because if they don't, history tells us that Microsoft will make them pay for that.
If smartphones will dominate the IT market is just an assumption. I think that smartphones will never be king. The IT market is too big for that even if we talk only about consumer market.
What if Microsoft decides to move out from the smartphones market? Do not underestimate the big guy. I dislike Microsoft as much as the other people that left comments here, but ... there is always place for a surprise move from them.
I am a long-time WM developer who went to the MIX conference in Las Vegas to see the Windows Phone 7 Series programming and architecture sessions.
The phone itself is slick, but the SDK is targeted entirely to web and Silverlight developers, with some XBox C# stuff thrown in for games. That's it.
No native code, no SD cards, no databases, no cut/paste, no multitasking, no notifications for phone events, little to no operator customization, terrible App Store options, no enterprise application distribution. This is the iPhone lock-down business and development model, on steroids. For business purposes, this phone is a fail. For innovation at the application level, this phone is a fail.
I won't be wasting any time on it. Android, here I come.
Windows Mobile smart phone market share peaked around 2004 at 25% and was therefore never "dominant". It was already in long decline when Iphone introduced due to Blackberry. At well under 10% and still falling now, it's hardly worth the effort to bash it any more, though some apparently continue to derive such pleasure.
Iphone OS sucks, too much limitations and restrictions. And its a pain in the ass to make an app for it, as they may be denied in the end. Too risky. Notice how iphone apps sell for cheap too. So no profit. Anything to do with apple products = low profit margins. My wholesalers wont sell apple products to me any cheaper then what I can get it from apple retail. Iphone OS is just non buisness users, non power users. The ipad will flop as it has no SD support, lack of proper bluetooth support, 3g download limits, file and folder access, app limits etc. Anything with apple is like pulling teeth. And they are so up on thinking there stuff is secure, they don't release bug fixes that often. But the iphone has been jail breaked so many times. This is an example how apple suck as writing software !
Now, if you have windows mibile, there is no reason to crack the device as it works out of the box !
At the Olympics I tried the latest samsung windows mobile devices, and they were awesome. So, windows mobile wont fail !
Windows Mobile wont fail, as it lets Power users do what they want to do. And It is not restricted.
"Gossel said"
yeah, right - some moron, who has too big self estimation, said something and now behold - everybody in the world MUST listen to him.
heh - I don't care. some milker farted and inq is making this thing a BIG news. wow.
I said something too - now go and make news from this!
MS can go any extent in desperation to crush competition... how about Windows-Desktop-8 starter edition with hardware requirements ARM-1GHz. MS Singularity project is live and kicking.
Rememeber in windows98 Installer !?! their was specific option for laptops called "Portable"
http://www.directron.com/windows98guide.html
"Portable (Windows will be setup with options that are useful for portable computers)".
Their might not be any Windows-Mobile-8.
Gossel is certainly no "independent investigator", filling his wallet with Applebucks and all. Kind of like talking while you are chewing.
I think a closer-to-the-truth marker of success would be allowing phone OS's to be an extension of "most" home computers.
- Apple cannot do this, with Jobs stomping all over developers while throwing His many narcissistic tantrums. Apple cannot seem to sell many "Jobs-controlled" (TM) computers, either, so that is another strike against them.
- Microsoft cannot seem to do this, as to do this they must sell phones, and they seem to prefer shooting themselves in the foot (kind of a Catch-22). But at least they have produced a good nipple-photography tool, so you have give them that much (shows the kind of high-quality advertising you can buy if you have billions).
- Nokia is diluting its efforts between S3 and Linux, and now seems to be casting off the more capable Linux for S3 which is limited to phones. Probably not a great move, given the momentum mobile Linux has built up.
- This leaves open-source based phones (other than Symbian, which was open-sourced too late). No draconian controls, open platform, happy developers. Android and MeeGo have a good chance of success, both being backed by large rich companies with an eye for the desktop market. And I can certainly see both Android and MeeGo (and also ChromeOS) snagging desktops after taking over phones, netbooks and tablets.
Convergence. Freedom. Ubiquity. These words seem to belong together, and this combination would seem to best be provided by open platforms that allow users to control their devices and their own lives.
Windows Phone 7 is going to die as soon as it hits the market. The problems are too many, too massive.
Yes, WP7 has a nice interface. But underneath it is a shambles.
The managed Silverlight runtime is as slow as molasses. No timing-critical app will work in it. There won't be any alternate browsers in WP7. No WebKit. No Firefox. Just the woeful, woeful Internet Explorer (based on a version of IE7 from 2006).
The hooks for APIs are lacking and underdeveloped. This makes it impossible to develop any kind of complex software for WP7. You're going to be left with only a bunch of simple feature-phone apps that aren't capable of much.
Then there are the missing features. Example, Copy & Paste. There is no point selling an Office application when there is no system-wide Copy & Paste. It's a show-stopper. You may as well give up.
I warn phone users to stay away from the first release of Windows Phone 7, due to its massive deficiencies. It will take Microsoft 2 years to fix it, by which time the entire platform will have gone. Expensive landfill.
Better to stay with Android. It's got all the momentum, is the fastest growing OS, is advanced and mature, and open-source.
Poor MS. Forced to pre-release unfit for market crap, 3 years too late.
The multiple sad comments from Entertainment and Devices Division employees only confirms the fail. Lots of companies dropping Blackberry to switch to WM7 that isn't even out yet? Yup, sounds like reality to me. Just leave your cut and paste expectations from WM 6.5 at the door.
WM7 signifies the abandonment of the corporate market which has sustained WM6. The Kin no doubt the latest financial disaster from Chief Experience Officer J Allard (just the J thanks)
When are we going to see an Open Sauce phone damn it!
I want some nerdo to port Haiku over to an HTC, or something.
Microsoft is the laughing stock of the phone industry.
Did you hear the one about Kin. Well, Microsoft released this silly device called Kin, which couldn't upload images to Twitter, couldn't Instant Message, and had no apps at all. No apps!!! (crowd roars in laughter)
Then the Vole tried to release something called Windows Phone 7. You wouldn't believe it. It had an Office suite that could not Copy & Paste!!!! No copy paste, heheheeee!!!! (crowd in fits of laughter)
(Of course, Android and iPhone just stomped on it).
Much as I'd like to see Microsoft fail miserably so I can dance on it's grave, the simple fact of the matter is that that bohemith isn't going anywhere. Even if by some miracle WP7 falls flat Microsoft's dominance of the desktop and laptop OS market is assured. So long as 90% of the population thinks their choices are Mac ("It's so expensive. What does it offer?" "Um...it's prettier?") and Windows, Microsoft is here to stay. As are desktops and laptops.
....using a phone, any phone for the web is well...shit!
I cant believe how folks just keep paying a fortune for a shit experience and keep deluding themselves.
So a guy that works for a company that does iPhone security, predicts that WP7 won't be ready until 2011, despite the fact that multiple sources both tech and hardware have indicated an October 2010 release? Gee, I wonder why?
in five years windows will still dominate the desktop OS landscape and the only place for windows mobile to go is up. I really can't see how anything will change for MS except for the better.
C'mon INQ, stories like this just make you look stupid.
Really? Trusting the lies of some clown who is invested in iPhone app development? Why don't we just take the word of MPAA stooges at face value too?
Stop citing these lame sources for your articles. They only serve to dilute what's left of your credibility as an online tech news site.
Really Gossil? You can make that prediction before the device is released?
Many companies are looking to replace their blackberry environments with Windows mobile 7 devices so Gossil needs to stop talking out your arse and understand business not just general public.