Gartner revises PC shipment figures

FORTUNE TELLERS working for Gartner have changed their minds about the numbers of PCs that are going to shipped this year.

Last year they rattled their chicken bones, studied the flights of swallows and came to a figure that was widely accepted as reasonable. It predicted that worldwide PC shipments will grow by 13.3 percent this year

Well, now that 2010 is actually with us, it seems they were too cautious as Gartner has raised its worldwide PC shipment forecast for this year, predicting growth of 20 per cent compared to 2009.

It is a bit like those people who predict to their followers that the world will end every weekend and head up to mountain tops to await the gathering cataclysm. When it does not happen they simply revise the prophecy for the next weekend.

Gartner is now saying PC shipments will total 366.1 million units in 2010, compared to 305.8 million units shipped in 2009.

George Shiffler, research director at Gartner said that the PC industry will be overwhelmingly driven by mobile PCs, thanks to strong growth in both emerging and mature home markets.

Shipments of netbooks, which Gartner calls mini-notebooks, will also grow in 2010, but not at the rate of previous years. The devices could face competition from next-generation tablets and small laptops with ultra-low-voltage processors, Shiffler said.

Mobile devices accounted for 55 per cent of all PC shipments in 2009 and will account for close to 70 per cent of shipments by 2012. By comparison, desktop PC shipment growth will be minimal and limited to emerging markets. The market will remain robust over the next few years as consumer demand for PCs increases and companies open up budgets to upgrade PCs.

But none of this is new. In fact when Gartner made its first prediction, everything including the Ipad was pretty much a done deal. So why the big change? Is it possible that Big G is making it up as it goes along? µ