Small and imperfectly formed
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PCs will be dead in three years
INCREASINGLY OPPRESSIVE "Don't be evil" *cough* Internet overlord Google says that PCs will cease to be relevant within the next three years.
Google's vice president of global ad operations John Herlihy told Silicon Republic that he has been watching Japan as a future indicator. He said that in the Land of the Rising Sun, most research is done on smartphones rather than PCs.
Herlihy's comments are similar to those made by his boss, Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who announced that the search giant is focusing on mobile, not desktop search, and further urged application developers to do the same.
Herlihy said that mobile makes the world's information universally accessible. However the mobile shift means that search will have to be a lot better.
Perhaps the reason that Google is talking up mobile is that at the moment the software that runs smartphone devices is a bit more backward than what runs a PC.
Herlihy admitted that Google has a fear that the industry's next Sergey and Larry will come up with a disruptive technology or service that will eliminate the need for Google.
"That spurs us on to deliver the best quality return on investment to advertisers in an open and transparent partnership that works for them," he said.
However it might also lead Google to encourage the industry to look into more areas where Google does quite well. Anyone who tries mobile Internet searches knows that looking for information is a lot slower and a lot less accurate on phones. You are less likely to try several different engines on phones, apparently.
In the unlikely event that tablets take off, that might change things, but at the moment anyone who uses the world wide web for serious research is stuck using a PC. µ
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Why do you publish this cr@p ?
...of what they're smoking.
It seems that Google has gone way beyond offering restaurants on their campus. It would appear that they've started distributing whacky-backy as well.
They would be wise to remember that the public is a fickle thing & it would only take one innovative search engine to replace them completely.
Predicting crap like this makes me wonder if they're not getting a little ahead of themselves.
back in 93 we all heard it was "5 years away"
17 years later, well now you know.
I've got some magical beans to sell this guy.
1. The internet is not 100% full-speed 24/7, and connections can die for days (!), so the idea of running tieing people to the net is deranged wishful thinking.
2. MIDs and phones are not practical for lots of typing.
3. MIDs and phones only have small screens so can't hold lots of information.
4. Using a TV for 2 and 3 are not practical, give a TV can be a lot more expensive than a PC, so good luck getting people to replace their swish news TV in a recession!
5. The killer is, there is still lots of stuff which needs to be done off-line or requires plenty of low-latency, local computing power e.g. any media processing, especially video or high resolution image processing!
HaHaHaHa
Well, this IS theinquirer.
I can hardly see cubicles with nothing but cellphones in them.
Just goes to show even at the rock bottom of the Stupid Pit, someone will bust out a shovel and proceed to dig a hole.
http://datababe007.blogspot.com/2010/03/dinosaurs-that-wont-die.html
I should be over it by now, but I am *still* amazed by the sheer numbers of corporate pointy hairs who evidently get paid Big Bucks for making sweeping public statements based on utter cluelessness.
I WANT THAT JOB.
Just like they said consoles would replace PCs. All it did was bring in more gamers that will move up to PCs.
My vidoe card is bigger than a PDA lol, would like to see them run masseffect/Crysis2 or similar on a PDA LOL
Me thinks they need to get out of their bubble and visit the real world.
Fat chance of this happening in Canada unless the Fat Pricks that are currently r@p1ng Canadians for Wireless bills in Canada aren't removed from the picture or regulated.
Weren't these the same kinds of comments made by "thin client" morons oh so many years ago? It was the same kind of "network is the computer" nonsense then as it is now.
No, desktop OSes will still be the dominant platform for computing, Google's "apps" will be still in beta, people will still want their desktop replacement laptops, and phones will still be a very, very weak way to do "work." Oh, and some other blind seer will come up with more "cloud" nonsense.
Ok lets see them type a 3000 word document on an their Iphone. See anyone over the age of 30 be able to really see video on a 3" screen. Thats about as laughable as a paperless office.
Jesus!! Oh how I wish I had $1 dollar for every individual that has been saying this for what seems forever.
PC's Will NEVER die simply because it is a usefull tool for work and most importantly PLAY. For Example....
Vivendi reports Blizzard's first billion-dollar year.
WOW maker's sales surge 59 percent to over $1.2 billion in revenue in '07; other game divisions' revs slide by 29 percent to $303.1 million; total VG haul over $1.5 billion.
That was on 2008 folks, and for the most part untill recently it was only A PC title. No shortage of profits there.
Now if that was not enough you dont need to be smart to figure out what most GAMERS like me already know.
While this info Includes Consoles,it does point out how well and profitable the PC Gaming still is.
http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_100114.html
"" 2009 U.S. VIDEO GAME INDUSTRY AND PC GAME SOFTWARE RETAIL SALES REACH $20.2 BILLION
Software Sales Experienced 11 Percent Decline When Compared to 2008
PORT WASHINGTON, NY, January 14, 2010 - According to leading market research company, The NPD Group, U.S. retail sales of video games, which includes portable and console hardware, software and accessories, generated revenues of close to $19.66 billion, an 8 percent decline over the $21.4 billion generated in 2008.
Retail sales in the PC game software industry also experienced declines, with revenues down 23 percent, generating $538 million in 2009. The total console, portable and PC game software industry generated $10.5 billion, an 11 percent decline vs. the $11.7 billion generated in 2008.
“December sales broke all industry records and underscores the incredible value consumers find in computer and video games even in a down economy,” said Michael D. Gallagher, president and CEO of the Entertainment Software Association, the trade group which represents U.S. computer and video game publishers. “This is a very strong way to transition into 2010. I anticipate these solid sales numbers to continue upward through 2010 with a pipeline full of highly-anticipated titles.”
Aside from portable hardware which experienced a 6 percent increase in revenue in 2009, all video game categories experienced declines, with the largest decline coming from console hardware (-13 percent). Console software and portable software both experienced declines of 10 percent, while video game accessories experienced a 1 percent decline.
"When we started the last decade, video game industry sales, including PC games, totaled $7.98B in 2000," said Anita Frazier, industry analyst, The NPD Group. "In ten years, the industry has changed dramatically in many ways, but most importantly it was grown over those years by more than 250 percent at retail alone. Considering there are many new sources of revenue including subscriptions and digital distribution, industry growth is even more impressive.""
It amazes me how short sited some people or companys like Google can be sometimes, I mean Look at ATI and NVIDIA, do you really think they became that big by making Donuts ?
Gone are the days where you go to the store to buy games now, Valves STEAM is the heavy player now with PC Gamers downloading there content directly from online and playing it on there PC where ever they are.
PC's are Alive and WEll and GOOGLE if your listenning..... Get into the PC Gaming industry !! you will never look back.
Peace !
Ah - on a phone the advert gets in the way of the research, so they get more dosh.
Sod'em - I'm getting the biggest screen with the biggest adblock going!
High-quality (think IMAX), comfortable and stylish head-mounted displays are the thing that will _truly_ bust the computer market wide open.
With the advances in pico-projectors we're seeing now, I wouldn't be surprised at all by 1st-gen "eyebuds" within 3 years.
Think eye-tracking, gaze-tracking, reality augmentation, Google 24/7... And people worry about keeping CPUs busy?
I'm starting my X-ray vision app right now...
I'm an application designer and I'm pretty sure my boss wouldn't take too kindly to me trying to develop an application interface entirely on my mobile phone. I'm pretty sure that my productivity will be a great deal lower.
At the moment at home and at work I have 2 quad cores 4gb in one and 6gb in the other. Both have 2 screens and allow me to work comfortably and quickly.
And google thinks I will be able to do without all of that and replace it with a mobile device with a crappy little keyboard or gestures?
Nothing will replace the PC until an interface comes along that can match the productivity of the traditional method.
Get a clue Google.
3 years is way too soon but...
Implementing Displaylink and wireless USB on phones with an improved larger screen interface could provide an ok environment for an office worker to use email/internet/intranet/office-lite applications.
They work ok currently on an old laptop using wireless usb to send a signal to a displaylink/usb hub to which I connected a 20 inch monitor/ keyboard/mouse.
My research involves reading dos in excess of 1000 words, often with pictures. Not great on 3" screen.
Also out here in God's own country Internet connection is often too poor to run Gooogle Docs. Unless Google is planning on pouring some of it's money into worldwide infrastructure improvements, it ain't gonna work.
ONLY IF by "research" is meant looking up a word or phrase for the most light-weight gloss of it.
And while the Japanese are admirable in many ways, their social trends simply don't apply to the rest of the world.
Seems free food isnt the only thing dished out at the Choco Factory ...
... they are probably having a lil side project growing some super eco weed .. and dog-fooding it by the looks ...
8)