Gartner predicts a jolly 2010

CRYSTAL BALL GAZER Gartner has said that 2010 shows signs of being a bumper year for the semiconductor industry.

The analyst firm came up with this rosy prediction after plucking numbers from its 'electronic sales system' and balancing them with sales and inventory. After sticking its finger in the wind, it managed to come up with a figure of 19.9 per cent growth over 2009 figures.

This impressive rise is attributed to "strong PC demand" and rising DRAM prices. In fact the firm says the latter will account for 55 per cent revenue growth for manufacturers. However most of the growth will occur in the first three quarters with Gartner reporting that it expects the third quarter to be "relatively flat".

As there’s no major launch from Microsoft to look forward to this year, Gartner says that the back-to-school period will be the busiest for system builders. It warns that foundries may struggle to meet demand after scaling back capacity in the past year, which could lead to price fluctuations as are currently being seen in the DRAM market.

While the forecast is encouraging, Gartner originally proclaimed that 2009 would see a 17.1 per cent drop compared to the previous year. Even though final figures were slightly higher than originally forecast, should a 19.9 per cent increase occur it would only just tip it over 2008's results.

For the semiconductor industry however, the latest predictions read a lot better than this time last year, if Gartner is to be believed. µ