A little sincerity is a dangerous thing, and a great deal of it is absolutely fatal - Oscar Wilde
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Don't worry about DRAM oversupply
WHILE DRAM ANALYSTS are a little worried about oversupply, the makers of the chips say that everything will be okay.
DK Tsai, chairman of memory packaging and testing service provider Powertech told Digitimes that constraints in supply will avoid some impulsive decisions that could later lead to industry-wide oversupply.
Besides there will not be any real growth until Christmas, he added. He said that spot prices for 1Gb DDR3 chips are likely to stabilise and should average $3 in the short term. That price level indicates a healthy supply and demand situation, he said.
DRAM chipmakers are speeding up their sub-50nm migrations in order to produce DDR3 at a decent price but there are some fears that this will create an oversupply.
Tsai said that NAND flash demand will be high thanks to smartphone and SSD requirements as well as tablet PC applications in 2010.
He said that NAND flash producers tend to be more cautious about output expansions and so are not expanding their operations to meet short term demand. Besides NAND Flash chip prices will be more stable compared to DRAM anyway. µ
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No DDR3 is reasonably priced, we've just been spoiled with DDR2 oversupplies and dirt cheap pricing that it has skewed the price perception.
I bought 8GB of DDR2 1066 last year for just about $110, now you get 4GBs DDR3 for about that much, which is about where DDR2 was before the market became over saturated.
Now that there are DDR3 AMD boards out there, DDR3 prices will come down as they will ramp production to meet demand and hit lower price points as DDR3 is no longer relegated to just higher end Intel chipsets and boards.
They should make even more. DDR3 is still too expensive.
Surely they must be crying now? Can anyone remember who it was?
Also, in 18-36 months when things pick up these guys will be oversupplying at the end of that 3 year cycle. But the numbers will be higher. SSD's, SATA3 6GB, AMD cpu's will finally push Intel to lower prices, Windows 7 will be stable, etc etc.