AMD on HD58xx shortages
SPEAKING WITH AMD's 5800-series Product Manager, Dave Baumann, we tried to get him to share a bit of his wisdom.
Over the past few weeks consumers, AIBs and distributors alike have been concerned about AMD's availability on its flagship 5800-series graphics cards, or rather, anything built on 40nm coming out of TSMC's ovens. It now seems there was some reason to worry, but AMD has promised to get things sorted in no time.
We rang up AMD to get its input on what's going on, just in case Saint Nick had a different idea on what to stick down our stockings. Dave Baumann took the lead and we fired off a few volleys of questions. Dave Baumann is Product Manager for the 5800-series graphics cards and the guy to quiz on all things Evergreen related.
The conversation started off with the rather blunt question, "What's up with this TSMC yields deal?" Not the most subtle of approaches, we must confess, but it set the tone for the call.
Dave Baumann explained that right off the block, wafers were coming out every week. "Thousands per week with AIBs. Tens of thousands in the next weeks." Sounds like good news, of course, but the chip was naturally harder to make. "It is a much bigger chip, higher priced and with different TAM expectations," added Baumann. And when compared to its predecessor, the "RV770 was a much higher volume chip anyway."
Apparently the problem occurred seven weeks ago at TSMC. Although AMD didn't disclose the reason for what happened, production was stunted and the master marketing plan was pushed out six weeks - but not launch dates, mind you. As mentioned by Charlie Demerjian in his article here, AMD sources seem to be as much in the dark about the specifics of what happened as we are. Baumann insisted that despite the constraint overall yields have been increasing steadily.
We asked, "How will this affect the introduction of the value offerings (Redwood, Cedar) next year?"
"These cards will still be launched in early 2010 - quarter one - and this has not changed our plan," said Baumann.
Concerning what AMD's expectations had been in terms of yield and just how much had that fallen short, he added "Yield is a little off, but not too far off. Availability is widespread right now, there's lots of product on the shelf."
We subtly nudged, "Are you considering other fabs?"
"No," said the Baumann. "There are currently no other fabs equipped to handle our production."
We quizzed, "How much of that is 5800-series and how much is 5700-series?"
"Well," said Baumann, "5800 to 5700 is about 2- or 3-to-1."
Of course we were forced to ask about Hemlock, the company's current flagship. Getting one graphics card to the market is hard enough, but a 2-in-1 is twice as hard.
"Hemlock," said Baumann, "is targeted at the ultra-enthusiast market. There is a reasonable fringe of users where Hemlock is targeted towards." We can read that as, no matter what we price it, we'll never meet the demand we have for it. Baumann continued, "We are introducing this because we expect to see an increase in output within the next few weeks."
The naming question was imminent, "Why a 5970 and not a 5870X2 name?"
Dave explained that "the previous generation X2 messed with the 4890 and people were confused."
This was followed by a "My oh my, that is a huge card" comment from your humble narrator.
The card follows the PCIe SIG specification, rather than going off-spec - that is, sandwiched PCBs, wider cards, and so on. That way, both power and form factor are preserved and anyone who builds cased according to spec shouldn't have a problem.
"You won't be putting it into mini-towers," added Baumann.
Yeah, well, at least not until a mini-PC or LAN Party PC maker or even a clever modder sorts that out. The card's power components are in fact built to withstand a huge 400W TDP, but AMD kept things in check to conform to PCIe standards, just shy of 300W.
Regarding the specs, AMD admitted it is "neither twice the 5870 nor twice the 5850, but somewhere in between."
"There will be a demand constraint," enthused Baumann - as if that's a good thing. "We don't actively expect to meet the demand. We do expect to produce more Cypress ASICs and get them into the channel. That's a common question we got asked."
In other words, people will sell their own mothers to grab these, so no matter what AMD does it won't be able to supply the market with enough cards.
With that, we concluded the call.
So, wrapping up. As of the last week of November, AMD is promising to step up shipments by a factor of 10, something we'd heard before. From thousands to tens of thousands of chips going out to the partners so they can get them to stores on time for that most pagan of rituals, Christmas. AMD doesn't think it'll miss out on the season.
AMD doesn't seem to mind much about the delays, unexpected as they may be. As they put it time and again, theirs is "the only game in town", referring of course to DirectX 11 support. With Vista recently getting its shot of DirectX 11 features, the only reason not to upgrade right now is really availability, isn't it?
Is there constraint? Well, there's no question about that. Is the problem major? Well, yes. Considering AMD can step up output by a factor of 10 it sounds like a major issue at TSMC. Will there be enough cards by Christmas? Yes and No, according to AMD. There will be a lot more around to blow your precious cash gifts on, but not as many as AMD would have desired in the first place. µ
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I've order my card over a month ago and I am still waiting. At this rate it will be next year before it ships. I'm sure the 5970 isn't helping that much considering it sucks two GPUs in one shot.
REmember 55nm, HiK then 45 nm HiK, Somebody forgot LoK or doing New Tango.
So without any reduction in Volt at loK, new smaller shrink has theBLITHERs'. this is overal theLAST year in 40/45 nm or even worse, cropping up in 32 nm, too.
Someone forgot to Engineer lower volt transisor LoK cpu or overestimated ability to take it? At Least, MAKE IT?
Todays Lowattage reduced by 80% is insight into fixing up excess & believe X25870 be different gpu than 5970 is too littler 'uns. 2.15 billion transistors x two pretty impresssive, especially with gpu migrating to array super computing. actual 4 boxes w/4cpu crosfire hybrid IS Supercomputer.
Once Hardware is 100% then 170+&+ more instructions called SSE5, held back by larabouy,.Price quoted Is $100 more than first estimated.How about hdmi 2.0 finally. Anyone can expect 1/3 more performance better than single gpu or about Vantage 18,000 Expected.
drashek
But this time SPOT ON !! ;0)
I say TheInq should sponsor english classes for Drashek as it would raise the quality of Inq by 65%.
Wow, I thought for a minute he was speaking Swahili, but then I looked closer. Yep, it is some form of english, just not sure what....
"so they can get them to stores on time for that most pagan of rituals, Christmas"
Christmas is like the anti pagan holiday. Christianity replaced Paganism, the Pagan new year is in the Spring (April)
Even a simple episode of The Simpsons could have told you that.
In ancient Babylon, the feast of the Son of Isis was celebrated on December 25. In 350, Pope Julius I declared that Christ’s birth would be celebrated on December 25. Since nobody knows the actual date of "Christ's" birth the date was chosen to cause the least amount of upset with pagans. Just like with Jesus many believe there are 5870's. Only time will tell.
no 5970 for christmas?
"Christmas is like the anti pagan holiday. Christianity replaced Paganism, the Pagan new year is in the Spring (April)
Even a simple episode of The Simpsons could have told you that"
As pointed out the Christian holiday was chosen to be the same date as previous pagan holiday as to convert the masses without revolt. It is all moot as Christianity is simply a rehash of many, many religions before it.
But hey, keep watching the Simpson, its got you this far!
Something's wrong if your high-end part (5800) sees 2 to 3 times the demand as your mainstream part (5700).
That means that either the 5800 is too good for its price or the 5700 is too expensive for what it is.
It's not even so much the demand it the fact they don't have any cards!
"Well," said Baumann, "5800 to 5700 is about 2- or 3-to-1."
The way I read this statement is that for every 5700 ATi produces, they produce 2 or 3 5800s. This means there are 2 to 3 times as many 5800s in the channel as 5700s.
Now if I go look at the stock situation of online retailers, I can find a 5700 series card in stock no problem, even with the limited supply, but a 5800 card is nowhere to be found.
This means one of the following:
a) Dave made a mistake and switched the numbers
b) My reading comprehension sucks
c) 5700 is a dud, nobody's buying them
That's not necessarily true. Cypress has twice as many transistors as Juniper. So, a juniper waffer has roughly twice as many chips as a cypress one. So, in a 2-to-1 scenario, production rates of both GPUs are equal. If you account that smaller dies have higher yelds, then even more this ratio is actually smaller.
And it's also natural that 5700 is lower in demand. It's high priced, and people with 4770/4850/4870/4890 has no strong reason to upgrade to a 5700 card, as the performance doesn't increase a lot, if at all.
Assume tens of thousands/week is 20 thousand/week and a wafer can produce 50 good die. TSMC is giving AMD 400 wafers/week for Christmas.
I read, "Both AMD and Nvidia are supply constrained, and Nvidia is likely getting most of the allocation," he said. AMD's graphics chip unit is also using TSMC as a foundry"
This is speculation, but if true (and AMD should have spies to find out if it is true), AMD will be looking for a new FAB for their GPU.
I don't see how AMD can stay with TSMC for their foundary. I would think that AMD would want to endorse Global Foundaries (soon to be 3 Factories) by using them for the GPU.
Charlie Demerjian, When you ask a company if they will continue to use TSMC you will get 1 answer. Answer: "We plan to stay with TSMC", even when it is not true. The only time you will get the answer: "Our next chip will be using a new Foundary." is when volume production is streaming out of that new Foundary. I have seen how allocation works, and no company wants to be put on allocation.
Perhaps not by counting chips, but by wafers.
You get less 5800-GPUs per wafer and thus need more wafers for the same number of GPUs.
Another factor I think is that the market for the 5700-series is those who aren't willing to pay a price premium to stay at the front edge, but rather replace their graphics card when there's a practical need to do that. Applications haven't become that more demanding during the past month, so if there wasn't a need two months ago there generally isn't one right now.
I expect the 5770 market to grow over the next year.
The current situation in Sweden seems to be that there are cards of most (all?) flavours in stock. But only small quantities and at retailers that charge about twice the regular price (or more).
Dave explained that "the previous
generation X2 messed with the 4890
and people were confused."
"HD5880x2?! Oh my god, they gave it a simple name describing exactly what it is! I'm sooo confused!! I can't take it, I'd better change my hobby from playing games to collecting coins! Damn you AMD!"
Do you really celebrate Christmas for the birth of Christ or for that white-bearded guy in the coca-cola red suit and all the little gifts you get?
BTW, every major Christian holiday is smack dab on top of a pagan celebration. It was done so to literally smother pagan ritual into submission.
"Hey guys, since you're actually all dressed up for that ritual sacrifice, you might as well chant this thing in Latin and sing praise to the all-father... only we call him God"
Production constraint heh? FAB 7 of Chartered-Global foundries is just waiting for loading....