DDR3 prices to overtake DDR2

TAIWAN'S ANALYSTS, readers of entrails and the flights of flocks of birds, are predicting that DDR3 prices will overtake DDR2 prices any day now.

DRAMexchange soothsayers claim that with PC OEMs pushing the migration to DDR3, the next mainstream memory chip will soon be traded above the ASP for DDR2 chips in both spot and contract markets.

Contract prices for mainstream 2GB modules have soared into the heavens and have touched the very throne of heaven. A wolf was heard howling outside the head office of TSMC and prices have surged more than expected during the first half of November amid strong demand in the PC market.

DRAMexchange said that spot market quotes for 1Gb DDR3 have risen to $3, while branded and tested 1Gb DDR2 chips are in the $2.60 to 2.80 range.

PC makers have been demanding more DDR3 since the launch of Windows 7, which surprised the hell out of market observers who had expected DRAM demand to weaken after Microsoft launched its new operating system. We guess they hadn't sorted their yarrow stalks long enough, or something.

Contract quotes for 2GB DDR2 and 2GB DDR3 modules have risen 19-21 per cent and 13-18 per cent, respectively, with average prices of $41 and $39 for the first half of November.

The average price of 1Gb DDR2 chips edged up by 15.5 per cent to $2.38, remaining above 1Gb DDR3 at $2.25.

Now much depends on the tea-leaves as to whether DRAMexchange's predictions come true. The shape which could be either a beggar or a self-employed Samurai warrior could mean anything. µ