- Saturday, 21 November 2009
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If I had all the money I've spent on drink, I'd spend it on drink. - Tame Alien
Analysts predict Nvidia Q2 losses
WALL STREET IS BRACING itself for the next barrage of financial results from the chip industry, with early indications that the CPU market will be doing alright while the GPU market, especially discrete graphics, will take a hit.
Despite an upsurge in optimism over the past few weeks, the world economy is still down in the dumps, with analysts telling us we can expect an average 10 to 15 per cent slump in second quarter results all 'round.
"Q2 will be seasonally down," confirmed graphics guru Jon Peddie, projecting that not until the third quarter will the market for graphics begin a slow recovery.
Nvidia is bitterly aware that although hard times may slow PC sales, the need for CPUs remains healthy with every computer requiring a CPU chip, but not every machine "needs" an expensive discrete GPU.
This is not good news for the Green Goblin's one-trick-pony as NV has no CPU business to fall back on. Also, since historically speaking CPUs have pretty much always made about 20 per cent more in terms of gross margin than GPUs, most analysts agree that having a joint CPU/GPU platform strategy is a must for long term survival.
Peddie, however, reckons that "Integrating the GPU into the CPU means little to nothing to Nvidia", as it is impossible to "physically or wattage-wise put a big enough GPU inside a CPU to make it matter - it will be little more than the IGPs we have now, benefiting primarily from process size."
Either way, we predict that when Nvidia's financials appear sometime in the next few weeks, the numbers probably will have dropped like a brick from the same period last year.
Nvidia is likely to blame everyone but itself for this, despite its ex CFO, Marvin Burkett, famously saying two years ago "As Intel and AMD continue to pursue platform solutions, we may not be able to successfully compete and our business would be negatively impacted." Everything comes true eventually, it seems.
Given how nice Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang was being to everyone over in Taipei at Computex, the INQ predicts Nvidia's quarterly revenues will be down yet again. And we've heard rumours that the shortfall could be as much as about 15 per cent compared with the same quarter last year.
Our crystal ball also tells us it's highly probable the Green Goblin will also cede a bit of market share to AMD, Daamit.
Too bad for Nvidia's head of investor relations, Mike Hara and his infamous custom T-shirt proclaiming "In 10 years time we should be bigger than Intel."
Poor Hara, he must be turning a light shade of, er, green. µ
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"In 10 years time we should be bigger than Intel."
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"GaAs has been, is, and will continue to be the future of integrated circuits."
Nvidia 1y ago must have had about 900mil revenue but considering they had only 664 mil revenue in Q1 09 a 15% drop from 1y ago would be a rather good result.
And btw they are reporting results in about 6 weeks so it's a bit early to predict and no matter what the numbers are they could be offset by the state of the economy,ION sales or Tegra design wins(first Zune,who's next)
Also Nvidia was rather optimistic last time they spoke about Q2 so expectations should be that they'll do better then in Q1 (and that is a positive thing even if it's way less then 1y ago)
"Nvidia is likely to blame everyone but itself for this, despite its ex CFO, Marvin Burkett, famously saying two years ago "As Intel and AMD continue to pursue platform solutions, we may not be able to successfully compete and our business would be negatively impacted." Everything comes true eventually, it seems."
Or maybe it was the poor economy!?!? Why is this site so biased towards Nvidia? Everyone will have a loss this year. I look at it this way; with the troubles Nvidia has had in the past with the spliting chip they still are atop of AMD/ATI in both performance or profits. They have the fastest cards and are more profitable than ATI. You here at the INQ need to seperate gossip from TRUE news.
Since the street is estimating a 25% decrease in rev yoy, 15% is great news.
it seems like sylvie is the only article writer left at the inquirer
road to failure.
anyway the inquirer is yellow press.
Due to all the bailouts, this financial mess is far from over (at least in USA). Why do ordinary people work for printed money from central banks? Why do governments grant exclusive privilege to central banks as the sole provider of currency. Why are competing currencies excluded from the market by law, regulation, or other mechanisms of government enforcement?
Can we start thinking about competing currencies traded via a real time open currency exchange network?
For those guys above me... can't you see Nick Farrell, Paul Taylor or Nebojsa Novakovic news?
For those who believe the expected 10-15% drop is year-on-year, sorry to disappoint, but it is the expected drop from Q1 due to seasonality. Q1 was bad...Q2 is expected to be worse.
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I am rather shocked to hear someone proclaimed as a "graphics guru" to say 'it is impossible to "physically or wattage-wise put a big enough GPU inside a CPU to make it matter'.
1 + 1 = physically smaller? Probably not by much.
Wattage-wise... highly dependent on level of optimization I would say. If it is exactly the same setup but just physically closer then probably not much gain. Still small gain in power efficiency though.
The most obvious to me is removing the need to talk over PCIe and through NB if you got both the CPU and GPU on one chip. Not sure how much power saving can be had here but I wouldn't dismiss it.
Combine all the small gains and it might just be enough to spell the end of Nvidia in the mobile (x86) IGP market.
Nvidia does have ARM based Tegra and hopefully they'll still be around for discrete GPUs. But I wouldn't give much credence to Nvidia's forecast/guidance since I still remember them being pretty bullish until reporting major lost last time around.
Where's Charlie ?
http://www.semiaccurate.com/
theINQ must have replaced Charlie with Sylive as a softer version of bias against nvidia!