- Sunday, 8 November 2009
- INQ Mobile
- RSS
Today is a nice place to visit but you can't stay here for long
Why the WinTel axis is crumbling
INTEL IS GETTING INTO operating systems big time. The OSes in question run on Mobile Internet Devices and Intel has a big future mapped out for these things. It may not be betting the farm on them, but certainly the double garage, some of the barns and half the furniture could end up on the table.
Blame the Atom. That wee bit of silicon is responsible for much head-scratching in Satan Clara, if you ask us. The scale of the little processor's success surprised the chip maker big time. And it's our contention that the margins it makes on the things aren't on the order Intel normally expects. Funnily enough, the missives that normally ensue from the Intel PR army when we say such a thing help confirm the notion in our Atom-sized brain. But that's another matter.
What is interesting, listening to Anand Chandrasekher banging the MID drum here on Intel's stage at Computex Taipei, is that there is a whole raft of operating systems out there that can run these devices.
"We'll always have Windows on our platforms," Anand told the press, rather unconvincingly.
And, spookily, just as the press conference got underway and software outfit Wind River was paraded onstage to tell us what it's up to in the mobile internet space, a few thousand miles away in Satan Clara, the eyes were being dotted and the tees crossed on the statement informing the world that Wind River was about to be Borged, to become a wholly-owned Intel subsidiary.
Amongst other things, Wind River peddles a "market-leading proprietary and multicore-ready real-time operating system" for embedded systems.
Intel first put the cat among the Voles when it handed its Moblin 2 platform over to the Linux Foundation. The OS - for it is one, sort of - was reportedly designed to run on Atom-powered devices. It allows a wide range of other operating systems - prettier ones, more like what we used to think of graphical user interfaces - to run on the Atom platform. Chandrasekher showed Android running on just such a device.
Questioned by one Charlie Demerjian about Android, Chandrasekher said Intel was keen to enable all comers to run operating systems on MIDs powered by its chips. "It's not that we don't support Windows, he said separately, "we're just following the action" (in the marketplace).
And in MIDs at least, that action is increasingly moving away from Windows and towards more open source offerings and that, in no small measure, is thanks to Moblin2.
Intel showed some pretty nifty handheld MIDs here, some of which were based on the upcoming Moorestown version of Atom. Inevitably these looked like big fat Iphones, but if these devices take off as the manufacturers think they will, and as Intel hopes they will, then millions of users may be dumping the Smartphone and the Netbook and maybe the laptop too. Certainly, Moorestown and the later Medfield Atoms will also be powering larger, keyboard-equipped Netbook-type devices as well. And with such frantic open source OS development going on, we can expect to see many more flavours of operating system tipping up on a wide range of computing devices and this will threaten Microsoft's trump card, which is that most people go with Windows because that's what they know and are familiar with.
Once Intel begins shipping Moorestown which is promised for the end for this year and then later, in 2011 when the 32nm Medfield is slated to appear, then any quibble over margin - whether we've imagined it or not - will be history, as indeed may be the Wintel axis which has served the industry for decades.
Microsoft has a lot riding on Windows 7. Not only does it have to obliterate any memory of Vista, it also has to be a better XP than XP. So not only is the threat posed by Linux growing but - thanks in part to Intel - it's now coming at Microsoft from below as well as sideways and above. Our man Ballmer may need to reinforce the seat of his pants. µ
Share this:
ShareBusiness Intelligence Software
Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
Enterprise Accounting Software
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)
Enterprise Systems Management
The only reason the Atom ever acheived success is that it is an x86 processor and can run Windows and OS X. Linux or other "custom" OSes don't need x86; there's not much preventing their use on other architectures like there is with Windows. Not only that, but there are many other embedded processors which can surpass Atom's capabilities.
So is Intel going to dilute the "lock-in" that Microsoft has conveniently provided by encouraging alternative OS use? I don't think so. If Intel is going to make its own OS, it's going to be to lock people in on phones and other devices where *other* embedded processors dominate, not where Windows has already established itself. There's no reason for Intel to hurt itself on that front, even if they had the means to compete.
Most phones don't run Windows. Most netbooks do. What we are seeing is the fight for everything in between.
A Windows netbook, even under XP, is convenient since you can run all your desktop software. For the smaller devices it's less obvious - desktop software doesn't scale well to small screens. Android, WebOS, and perhaps the Moblin variants might well offer a better user experience with apps and interfaces tailored for small, mobile hardware.
Here's a thought.
Intel may be using this OS as a learning curve to build other OSes in the future to compete with Windows itself. The way Intel would do it is they would lock out AMD and other CPU vendors. They're doing it now with chipsets (locking out Nvidia from getting a chipset license) and x86 ISA licensing (AMD). Who knows, they might even lock out Microsoft from building Windows anymore. They can do it, after all, it's their chip. Who knows Intel chips better than Intel?
The best bet would be to slowly migrate to another computing platform. AMD and others can put in a new ISA in their chips while still retaining x86 compatibility. Over time, software would use more and more of the new ISA while slowly ditching x86. It's like putting your right foot slowly on a new boat while keeping your left foot still on the old boat. When your right foot has a good grip, you let go of the old boat and put both feet on the new boat. I know that sounds far fetched, but i think the world and anybody in it should have free access to a platform that's used by everyone, not controlled by one single entity such as Intel who locks out anyone if they want to.
Or Microsoft could buy AMD and make Intel run for their money.
Atom is a dilema for Intel. Intel wants to create the MID market with Atom but instaed, Netbooks emerged and took off. From the consumers' point of view, there is nothing wrong with Netbooks....actually, a rather nifty product. But the reality is it cannbalizes the more lucractive notebook market. This is a problem not just for Intel but for the OEMs and ODMs as well.
If you listen to Intel, you have to listen very carefully what they say. They said..."Netbook cannibalization is about 20%". That might be true...but bear in mind that until now, Intel is (effectively) the only provider to this market and they control the supply. Given that, 20% is a big number. As time goes on, other players (AMD, Via, ARM) will enter the fray and up the ante. Intel will be forced to improve Atom's performance and features and supply. The canibalization could get worse going forward.
Intel also said that the profit margin on Atom is as good as other processors. This is probably a true statement....in terms of margin %. But Atom's ASP is much lower thus the margin dollar it generates per unit is correspondingly lower. If Atom grows the market, it has merits. If it does not, it will have a double whammy effect....lower margin dollar plus cannibalization of the mainline market (notebooks) which then increases the cost of these products (less volume to amortize fixed costs) and the result is even lower overall margin.
The key question is whether MID makes any sense at all. Many described it as an over-sized Smart-Phone. The question one has to ask...would you use a MID instead of your phone? Probably not...too bulky and less battery life. Would you use your MID instead of a notebook/netbook? Probably not, too cramped and too limited in functionality. So, if I go on business travel, would I bring just my MID and leave my notebook and SmartPhone at home? Probably not. Seems like MID is "another gadget" you carry...it doesn't really replace any of the other ones. By the way, this is exactly what Intel wants...you buy yet another gadget. Seems like the market is limited.
Gimmie an ARM based widescreen computer I can put in my jacket pocket, and i'll be happy.
HP Jornadas used to be able to do this, and I've been still waiting for one to be smaller than a Netbook, but larger than a phone....
Think of it a something clamshell to protect the screen, and the size of a largish chequebook....
As long as it has a video out, for 720p or 1080p viewing extrenally, then i'm sold.
No Win7 on ARM would be good for Linux, since people would be more inclined to have a machine thats on for a very very long time, compared to what you know, but holds 4 hours....
I couldn't help but notice a typo in the article that stuck out like a sore thumb. In the 2nd paragraph, the city name reads "Satan Clara" when it should be "Santa Clara".
Couple of years back, when Intel first announced Atom platform, They (Intel) clearly stated that the firs Atom generation devices will be mostly powered by M$ software, second generation (coming in the end of the year) will have much bigger share of Linux derivatives. Android, Moblin, WebOS and others are all share same Linux core with few tweaks and different UIs. And that's fine, people like to feel special. Among my friends running Linux, I can't find two, that looking same (I'm not talkin about color and background image). Even though all using Gnome. Anyway, according to the same announcement, the third generation of Atom platform will be completely M$ free. That was said by Intel more than two years ago. What we see today is just that they do what they said (not like Asus).
Once it was better for customers to have same HW platform, today it seems that it is better to have software platform that can run on every hardware. All the way from hand watch to super computers. May be Intel wants to replace their own x86 with something better. Otherwise it will be difficult for them to compete with ARM, MIPS, PowerPC and other architectures when it comes to size, weight and power consumption and performance.
"Gimmie an ARM based widescreen"
"As long as it has a video out, for 720p or 1080p viewing externally"
Ha, you're so funny. Atom can barely do 720p and can't come anywhere close to 1080p video. An ARM that fits in your coat pocket won't be able to do this for many, many years.
Dan, your comments are absolute rubbish. You are a stupid retard who needs to constantly change his wet diaper.
You said ARM can never get 720P/1080P Video. Yeah, right...
To prove you wrong:
*Qualcomm Snapdragon - 1080P Video, 3G, 3D graphics, 8 hour battery life
*Freescale i.MX515 - 720P, Optional 3G, OpenGL, 8 hr. battery
*Nvidia Tegra - 1080P, Advanced GeForce ULV GPU, 3D, Optional 3G, up to 25 days battery playing audio only, 10 hr. HD movies
If you wanna see a widescreen, go to YouTube and search for 'Wistron PurseBook'
Atom is so last millenium.
Check Nvidia's Tegra.
600 is 720p capable, 650p 1080p capable.
Tegra is around old ARM core. The size of the system can be put inside my N95.
On the other hand, Freescale's Snapdragon can do the same and is not larger. I can go on, but i think it is enough to make this clear.
"Ha, you're so funny. Atom can barely do 720p and can't come anywhere close to 1080p video. An ARM that fits in your coat pocket won't be able to do this for many, many years."
Except that the ARM licensees like TI have a bunch of DSP-related technology and other goodies that they're able to mix into their products: it isn't the CPU technology vendor who puts their mark on the whole experience, regardless of whether or not they can deliver the goods. And since everyone wants video on their ARM-based smartphones, guess what those ARM licensees are ramping up to produce.
Sheesh, it's like someone from the turn of the century showed up to tell us how "Intel can give us more MHz than those puny ARMs" having not paid any attention even to the ARM licensing scene from their own time, let alone the scene of today.
MID's are nothing more than an attempt by a manufacturer to convince people to spend money on something they don't need just to make a fast buck off consumer mis-information. I'm not replacing my smart phone or laptop with some other device. I'm just going to keep what I have working for me until it dies, then replace it.
Your fellow convicted monopolist sneakily gives you an iron overdose between the shoulder blades. Poor Microsoft. Even other monopolists don't like them.
"AMD and others can put in a new ISA in their chips while still retaining x86 compatibility. Over time, software would use more and more of the new ISA while slowly ditching x86."
Congratulations, you've just described the history of x86-64.
Get some facts people. The 64-bit x86 architecture belongs to AMD and unless Intel can bring something better on the table (nevermind it's probably too late for that anyway), they need license from AMD to make x86-64 chips. Intel revoking x86 license would launch the equivalent of nuclear war and secure mutually assured destruction.
I know that, but AMD64 is STILL x86, following the same basic architecture, registers (not counting R08 to R15).
So what else do you know that you wanna tell us?
"I couldn't help but notice a typo in the article that stuck out like a sore thumb. In the 2nd paragraph, the city name reads "Satan Clara" when it should be "Santa Clara"."
No Fred, you read right, it's "Satan Clara".
A small computer device to fit in your pocket mmmmmm shame Psion did't survive they had the 3a 3c then the 5x and 7x that were small computer type gadgets.
No they were not phones, but no doubt could have been if developement had continued, and no doubt their size could have been shrunk to a lot less than what it was back then.
There is still a healthy market for them on E-Bay showing that their design were way ahead of the game back then, like I say, a shame.
So right. I dearly miss my Series5 and Series3 before that. They have yet to be bettered after all this time! And the Series7/Netbook design was what the current pretenders only hope to be.