Analysts clash over Android growth figures

ANDROID SMARTPHONE shipments will purportedly grow a whopping 900 per cent according to some highly optimistic figures from excitable market research outfit, Strategy Analytics (SA).

SA also blurted out it believed Apple's Iphone operating system will be the next fastest-growing smartphone OS in 2009, citing a predicted 79 per cent growth rate.

Despite being a bit of a late bloomer, Google's open source Android platform seems to be gaining momentum amidst buffed up support from telco operators, developers and retailers alike, with SA noting the platform's presence is finally seeping through Europe and Asia.

"Android is expanding from a low base and it is consequently outgrowing the iPhone OS from Apple," said Tom Kang, a senior analyst at Strategy Analytics. He was backed up by SA's director, Neil Mawston, who added that Android's "relatively low-cost licensing model, its semi-open-source structure and Google's support for cloud services have encouraged companies such as HTC, Motorola, Samsung, T Mobile, Vodafone and others" to throw their weight behind it. This, he claims puts Android "in a good position to become a top-tier player in smartphones over the next two to three years."

But picking apart the numbers, a 900 per cent growth rate would mean Android has to ship 6.9m million handsets by the end of 2009. And thus far, it's taken six months to reach just one million units, with Android's currently sole provider HTC's G1 phone. So, just another 5.9 million more to go in seven months then. Sheesh.

It's true that Android based smartphone shipments will perk up dramatically once Motorola, HTC, Samsung and T-Mobile have all released their promised devices, but until they do, it seems the promises are about as empty as those muttered by the Open Handset Alliance.

Wanting a more sober opinion from a market research outfit whose reports are more suited to a Marvin the Paranoid Android outlook, the INQ turned to IDC, where we were told by a top boffin that although the OS would "definitely be the star this year," a 900 per cent growth rate seemed "extremely optimistic".

"IDC expects Android to grow around 420 per cent to a total of 3.6m units worldwide in 2009," Francisco Jeronimo told the INQ, noting that although several handset makers, including LG, were expecting to announce an Android device soon, "almost all devices will ship in Q3 and Q4, which will limit the impact of Android's growth in 2009."

Nevertheless, said Jeronimo, "the industry is showing a strong interest in this OS."

The main reason the future is looking so bright for Android, according to Jeronimo, is because the industry is looking for a way to alleviate Symbian - and by proxy, Nokia - dominance. "Operators want to balance power between OSs in order to keep control of the market," he told us, adding that the reason Android is being picked is for "technical and commercial issues, rather than strategic."

"Android is a free OS, it's a sufficient mature platform for most operators and vendors, has a powerful brand behind with all Google's services integrated and it has a good touchscreen user interface," he said.

IDC also reckons Strategy Analytics have it wrong when it comes to Apple's Iphone OS blasting competitors out of the water, saying it believes Blackberry's OS will trump it.

"RIM proved to have a very successful product among enterprises," Jeronimo told the INQ, adding the firm's growth rates were "strong and consistent."

IDC believes the market will consolidate around six major operating systems over the next three years, namely Symbian, Blackberry OS, Windows Mobile, Mac OS X, Android and Linux.

However, concluded Jeranimo, "unless Apple comes with a wider portfolio we don't believe iPhone will continue to deliver the past growth rates. Apple is not as successful among enterprises as RIM is among consumers." µ