EU is expected to fine Intel

That is fine, they reap what they sow.

would amd see any of that money or will it just refill expense accounts?

So, assuming Intel is indeed guilty and gets a big fine, how does that benefit AMD?

perhaps they'll have to stop paying people to not sell amd products, ?

Maybe it won't benefit AMD directly, but in the long term it could be possible this won't happen again. After all, AMD wiped the floor with Intel for almost 3 years with Athlon/Athon64 and this wiping of the floor ment almost nothing in terms of market share and return of money... How is it possible to have the best product for three year on a row on the market, at a decent price and not to benefit ?! Simple: you're in almost a monopoly market and the big guy controls the market by any means it can. So many say AMD fault is it "cannot execute".... of course it cannot... no matter how smart you are, if all your money goes into R&D and R&D comes out with a great product but the market artificially doesn't buy it, then there goes the money... Well, this is a classic case of the abberations of wild capitalism... not that capitalism is wrong, it isn't, but it's not perfect since once in a while the best is not rewarded do to the mafia of the big guys... Any way, enjoy the "great" price of blue guy's processors... we all deserve this !

Should the EU decide to fine Intel as heavily as the INQ expects, that might prove to become an Armageddon for AMD.

Intel for sure would remember who brought them into this situation and might decide to retaliate in an so far unexpected way.

This unexpected way could be to revoke all current license agreements from AMD.

This for sure would mean that AMD would revoke all their licences from Intel.

But Intel has enough in store to go without them and establish a new architecture (leaving behind x86 alltogether) that can do without whatever AMD ever had to offer. Intel does have the clout to exactly do this.

"Only the Paranoid survide" so to speak.

At the end of the day, AMD could be left as a company supplying graphics chips and offering global manufacturing services too.

AMD could easily become a "Phoenix crashing into the ashes".

Intel never felt compelled to this, but they surely may feel tempted to enhance their tick-tock strategy by this option.

Should this happen, the IT world would see a lot of true innovations in the processor space that we have been missing for quite some while.

Start by fining Intel 500 Billion Euro - that's with a "B". Then they'll get the message. AMD should be awarded the full 500 Billion Euro and Intel should pay all costs for the investigation.

I agree with you to an extent but didn't Intel try to throw away the X86 core with the Itanium. That failed horribly and then there is the whole fact that there are terabytes of software that everyone around the world uses and would need to throw away and buy new software to run on this non-X86 hardware.

As much as there would be retaliation from Intel they can't just have a hissy fit and think they can go their own path. The only way they could accomplish this is by going Linux route and the world + dog does not seem ready for Linux. I'm sure that Intel will not license any new x86-64 tech from AMD as a retaliation but that is as far as I see it going. BTW Intel can't just invalidate any already existing licenses since there are hefty fines involved in doing so (either in licensing from others and licensing to others) and AMD will not invalidate what they are licensing to Intel since they are making money.

Intel did bring this on them self and they need to sleep in the bed they made.

I agree with you to an extent but didn't Intel try to throw away the X86 core with the Itanium. That failed horribly and then there is the whole fact that there are terabytes of software that everyone around the world uses and would need to throw away and buy new software to run on this non-X86 hardware.

As much as there would be retaliation from Intel they can't just have a hissy fit and think they can go their own path. The only way they could accomplish this is by going Linux route and the world + dog does not seem ready for Linux. I'm sure that Intel will not license any new x86-64 tech from AMD as a retaliation but that is as far as I see it going. BTW Intel can't just invalidate any already existing licenses since there are hefty fines involved in doing so (either in licensing from others and licensing to others) and AMD will not invalidate what they are licensing to Intel since they are making money.

Intel did bring this on them self and they need to sleep in the bed they made.

I realize you are not conversant with US antitrust law or the US Federal Rules of Evidence. This is a major victory for AMD since it proves their antitrust claims in the US against Intel. It becomes res adjudicata as to guilt. That leaves only calculating the damages and the tripling of those damages. A $10 billion judgment will wipe out any cash Intel has to finance their marketing program and cripple R&D. Add prejudgment interest at 6%/year and post judgment interest while Intel appeals Intel could easily be bankrupt with a debt that cannot be discharged in bankruptcy. It will not help them as a tax deduction either. The other issue for the Intel management is personal criminal liability. The tame Bush Antitrust lawyers are gone from DOJ being replaced by people who were instrumental in going after Microsoft in the first place.

As to a technology lead that is very questionable. Intel has never placed in the top 3 in any category in http://www.hpcchallenge.org/ DARPA's HPCChallenge. AMD leads two benchmarks and the old 939 Denmark is second in Fast Fourier Transforms and third in Global Random Access. That is an extremely rigorous benchmark when compared to the trivial benchmarks used by the tabloid press using 4k page files or even Linpack which is now obsolete. http://www.netlib.org/utk/people/JackDongarra/PAPERS/adv-comp-darpa-08.pdf AMD(Barcelona)/IBM hit 1 petaflop a year ago with Roadrunner and AMD(Barcelona)/Cray surpassed that last November with Jaguar. Pleiades at NASA AMES is Intel's first and so far only hope for a Petaflop ranking; it will be operational in November maybe. That will be good for 6th or 7th in the world at SC'09. AMD has introduced Shanghai and Deneb in the meantime. January should see the AMD(Deneb) Cray Cascade operational at 4-6 Petaflops. http://www.nitrd.gov/pubs/2006supplement/hec_rd.pdf along with IBM's P7. That would put Intel 3 generations behind under Moore's Law.

Good points, there are many (possible) facets of this Intel vs. AMD issue.

What we always need to keep in mind is,
that both Intel and AMD are US-American companies
and the x86 dominates IT as Hollywood dominates entertainment.

When you look at US-American politics
the US are working diligently to enhance this dominance rather the annihilate it.
So the US government will keep things at bay somehow in a silent way I gather.

Itanium wasn’t a huge success (which is partly due to HP’s heavy influence on this architecture)
but it still might proof to have been a good exercise in hindsight, who knows.

Intel is a very conservative and consistent company.

On the other side, Intel is a company well known for unexpected decisions.
Intel does whatever is good for Intel.
And if Intel feels that they, as the originator of the x86 architecture, are being treated unfairly,
they will take very decisive measures to encounter that.
And who knows what jokers Intel still have up in their sleeves.

AMD, in Intel’s mind, could have crossed a fine line, that they should not have crossed
and Intel may take “appropriate” action, whatever this may mean.

Anyway, with GloFo AMD has presented Intel an invitation to revoke the x86 license.

Besides all this Hosanna from AMD:
AMD shortly could find themselves in a perfect storm situation
that dwarfs any challenge in the history of their company.

When the going gets tough, the though get going.
Intel is a tough company, so I expect the unexpected.

"Only the Paranoid survive".

I see some writing on the wall for AMD.
Just my 2 Euro-cents, really.

Gentlemen, please place your bets.

:-)

Germany leads the European Union and AMD is manufacturing in Dresden after
important German investments. Perhaps if the AMD microchip manufacturing
were in Poland or Spain it would not happen anything at all. Let Intel buy at a ridiculous price all AMD shares (Market Capitalization 2.84B today against 86.79B Intel), or much better when a few weeks ago cost half that Total price.
The menacing "Fine"? would have been under the price of AMD itself. Is it
really a robbery or only anticompetitive German behaviour in Europe?, where
this important, influential and indispensable country rules: the old Deutsche Mark is the new Euro. Have you heard of Nehalem or Nehalem EP? This is the real problem now for AMD, dear Germany. The European Comission is the
German Comission, like the Euro currency is a disguised Deutsche Mark. The ominous Fine? is more or less what AMD cost if bought.
They must think that from Dresden in Germany they can supply everything Germany-Europe need to manufacture a lot of different devices.

EU doesn't have a right to keep even a penny. If they're going to fine Intel, they MUST pay the whole sum to AMD. Otherwise this is just EU's method of extracting money from rich companies.

I doubt amd will see any of it. Governments don't work that way, at least none I've ever seen....

If Intel tried to rein Armageddon down on AMD's world by way of retaliation, which any change in business dealings that brought about more restrictive or loss of licensing to AMD would be considered retaliation, Intel would meet its end at the hands of the Sherman Antitrust Act, hence Shermageddon.