- Wednesday, 11 November 2009
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How many Bloody Marys have you had? - Richard Faria, Temonmichi
Computer says Iran will not build nukes
A COMPUTER simulation says that Iran will not build nuclear weapons and president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will quickly disappear from power.
Political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, an advisor to the Central Intelligence Agency built a computer model which looks at political and social indicators in various countries.
He said that by the start of next year, Iran will stabilise its nuclear programme after it produces weapons-grade fuel.
However, while it will build national pride by showing it can, Iran will not develop enough to actually produce a bomb, the model predicts.
Bueno de Mesquita's computer model is usually 90 per cent right, and certainly better than Tarot cards, the CIA thinks.
Iran's religions leaders will slide while bankers and oil producers gain in influence, according to the computer print-out. µ
L'INQ
AP
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Simulations don't lie, buy lairs run simulations. The science behind simulating human decisions is flaky. The only reason someone would even bother creating a simulation like this is to arrive to a predetermined answer that will help their career.
Just like in previous administrations, Iran is easier to ignore than to confront. There are those in the CIA that will tell the executive branch what it wants to hear. Same stuff, different President.
My computer just said 10110000101010110110101101010111011010010101110110100011010101111101010111010111010101011101101101010101
Does that mean I win world war 1010 with bits to spare?
Exactly, why all this fuss about Iran and its mirage "nukes"? Relax. So, what are the numbers that can win you the Lottery?
president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of the young dudes who took the US Embassy during the short Iran revolution under Ayatollah Khomeini. This guy has been around for a long time even if the news reports make him sound like he "appeared from nowhere". He was a moderate during the revolution. I saw this on a documentary recently on Iran. Ain't TV great.
Jesus. Iran doesn't even have the capability to produce weapons grade fuel. That has been well documented by the UN. So I guess some divine miracle will do it for them. Is the CIA simulation predicting divine intervention then? Better kill them first before God helps them out, I guess.
That's one of the first rules they teach you about damn computers... garbage in, garbage out.
Besides, what's wrong with Iran? Yep, the leader sucks, but I guess that applies to all leaders...
I haven't been there, but some folks I know have, and they say iranians are nice and polite people, cities are very tidy and there's plenty of good food to taste (specially candies and deserts).
Let's worry about nuclear when there will be reason to and use computers the way they were built to be used: to surf for pr0n, to watch porn movies and in general to focus on boobs rather then bombs...
This man is an idiot.
It isn't enough that computer models of climate or economics are wrong, he has to go and make another for politics.
Models are conceptual representations of real entities designed to aid understanding, not to make predictions (they rarely succeed at that). These days everyone has a model, they're all wrong and the media publish every prediction as if it's come straight from Nostradamus himself.
Get a grip!
Wait a minute! In an ideal world, maybe, which computer can simulate with mathematical logic. But since when human logic/paths are predictable to fall on the good side?
Goes to show that computers are made as children are born innocent, until an evil operating system is put in them. Ha ha!
on dutch tele, a really funny comedian ?
went by the same name, same looks as groucho marx.....
died in 2005, unfortunately... or did he?
http://www.nos.nl/nosjournaal/artikelen/2005/8/19/190805_buenodemesquita.html
No, you're getting all wrong, the guy we are speaking is Chico.
I think this guy just spent time at his office playing civilization 3 and suddenly his boss appears and ask him what the heck he has been doing for the last 6 months.
You can guess the rest.