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Graphics chip shipments decline, outlook gloomy

Desktops dying a death
Friday, 30 January 2009, 13:07


SHIPMENTS OF graphics chips fell some 34 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared to the third quarter, estimates from Jon Peddie Research (JPR) published yesterday suggest.

Demand suffered as buyers switch their focus away from desktop systems.

JPR reported that total shipments of GPUs in the fourth quarter of 2008 reached 72.35 million, down from 100.5 million in the same quarter last year. Shipments were also down 34 per cent from the 111.26 million units in the third quarter of 2008, the first time since 2000 that fourth-quarter shipments have decreased compared to the third quarter.

Although the entire market saw reduced shipments, some firms struggled more while others, as Nvidia mmanaged to claw back some market share from AMD.

The fall in GPU shipments comes as the desktop market continues to shrink. The rate of decline accelerated at the end of 2008, but it is hoped that the desktop market will level off in 2009 as companies take advantage of more attractive prices to buy more powerful desktop machines.Hiscard

Some 37.45 million GPUs were shipped for the desktop segment in the fourth quarter, a 39.5 per cent drop from the previous quarter, while 34.89 million units shipped for the notebook segment.

JPR explained that there are more desktop graphics devices shipping than notebook ones because desktops are more likely to have more than one graphics board. Overall, notebook GPU shipments were down 29 per cent in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.

Dr Jon Peddie, president of JPR, noted that, while the fourth quarter is usually a positive one for the computer industry, there have "obviously been some inventory problems in the quarter as sales failed to live up to the optimistic expectations of the third quarter of 2008".

Dr Peddie added that, despite vendors bracing for a slower than usual quarter owing to the faltering economy, "performance this quarter was surprisingly low" .

"We are forecasting a strong third and fourth quarter for 2009 and bracing for what will probably be the worst first and second quarter decline we have seen since the internet bubble of 2000," he concluded. µ

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Comments
it will get worse.

PC gamers everywhere are moving to consoles to get their kicks. That means its less important to own the latest and greatest money and energy eating gfx cards.Even the leftovers like Warcraft dont need a mega gfx card to run.

Since I purchased my PS3 a couple of years back , I have neither purchased a pc game, or upgraded a gfx card. Both of which used to do on a regular basis.

game over PC.And with it, a large chunk of the pc gfx card market.

posted by : tapaul, 30 January 2009 Complain about this comment
Make it easier for consumers

Make it easier for consumers to upgrade desktops and don't sell them as a one time throw it away when it doesn't work box. I think you will find that more people would choose a desktop over a laptop if they knew that when it gets to slow, they don't need a new computer, they can just change the guts. Imagine if HP, Dell, Gateway all sold approved hardware for upgrades(i.e. discrete graphics, RAM) that someone could pick up in their local computer shop and all they had to do was know their PCs model number to know if it was compatible.

Netbooks will become the dominant extension of the desktop computer, not the laptop. Having a laptop and a desktop is redundant for most and I think the netbook+Desktop PC duo is a much better team.

For the average home user they get a laptop because
A. It's portable
B. It gets online

Unless someone NEEDS to have full PC functionality in their lap, I think most will move towards netbooks and use a desktop for their more intensive tasks.

posted by : Deek, 30 January 2009 Complain about this comment
Here's an idea... Economy

You don't think the decline in purchasing electronic equipment has anything to do with the global economy?

Purchasing of a majority of items has fallen due to the global economy.

posted by : anonymous, 30 January 2009 Complain about this comment
Laptops

I'm currently at a large university campus, and everyone I know that has a laptop (notebook) never really take it anywhere with them. After the novelty has worn off, people realise it is easier just to write notes on paper rather than lugging a notebook around, forgetting to charge it then running out of battery half way through class, the distraction... Laptops do have their usefulness but most people just leave them on the desk. After a while people find the keyboards too small and the touchpads too awkward, so they buy a keyboard and mouse. They then realise speakers would be nice, and curse the fact that the screen is small when watching movies.

Consoles certainly aren't the answer though, there are two reasons why upgrades are required on desktops. The first is intensive game features and physics, such as that in Crysis - a console doesn't have anywhere near the power for that, and the second is many games are just ports from consoles now anyway, and they are coded disgustingly bad. GTA IV is a prime example of very bad pc porting, although the second patch just released and Forceware 185.20/Catalyst 9.1 do help a bit.

Consoles can be expensive too, the models people prefer can be quite pricey even though the hardware used in them is old by todays standards. Also they are expensive for repairs as a friend of mind has recently found. I'm not surprised manufactured PC's are reducing in numbers, people have been turning to store built (or build your own PC) for years. If you build a reasonable machine from quality parts there's not much that can go wrong with them. Apart from the recent Seagate issue, most hard drives for example (as well as other computer components) fail from heat, not from use but from poor circulation. Laptop drives often get too hot and fail. The HDD power down feature as standard turned on (Vista etc) doesn't help either, it ruins HDD's by constantly turning them on and off. Its a good intention thing, just doesn't work the way its meant to!

posted by : Mick, 30 January 2009 Complain about this comment
re: it will get worse.

I've been hearing this tripe since the early 90's.

Yet, nearly all the innovative games are on the PC, the PC game market is still larger all consoles combined and the only console that has lived up to the expectations of its maker is the Wii, which has been a huge financial success for Nintendo.

It would not surprise me if there is no playstation 4 or xbox 720(?), only a wii 2.

posted by : Soylent, 01 February 2009 Complain about this comment
pro sumer

I think the main reason is the lack of real components aimed at the consumer. Too many people are getting turned off by the flood in the market for prosumer products. One example is the hd thing, you buy a 1080 to replace you old television. Then you have to buy a media player (blu) to match, then you have to buy a service that offers resolution to match. In the end if you dont buy the whole package youre left with half an l in your forehead. In america you can walk into a walmart or most shops and still buy an ati radeon 9200 for 130 dollars!! or a creative audigy 2 for 60 dollars, or how about a 150 gig for 100 dollars. People need some value for the money, video cards no longer give you that, and the used card marked is very good. Instead people are left wondering how a 9800 pro on the shelf compares to a 9800gtx. Especially when you end up buying games that are nice in graphics and lack the real multi player experience, in the end you always go back to quake3 et.
Especially when you buy a need for speed that is worse that the last one and requires better hardware and a better shader model.

posted by : missingxtension, 02 February 2009 Complain about this comment
PCs are far from dead

I agree with those who do not put any credit in the "desktop death" theory.
The PC environment is ideal for tinkering and pushing the envelope, and that is what has been happening for decades.
No console will ever be better than a high-end PC of the same timeframe, and the best console becomes mainstream PC equipment in but a year.
Two years later, no console can hold a candle to a mid-range PC.
That is because the PC is the development environment. It's where the new theories are put to the acid test of performance.
And that is much too practical to change.
I will be upgrading my PC yet again this year, at some point, there is no doubt about it.
The real issue I have is that there are barely a handful of games I'd like to have. The only titles I have on my Wanted list are Diablo III and Dawn of War II.
For the rest, nothing I see is interesting enough to warrant either my time or my money.
And when the PC is good enough for what you've got, there's no pressing incentive to upgrade.

posted by : Pascal Monett, 03 February 2009 Complain about this comment
the power envelopes are lousy

The power envelopes on nvidia and ati's top cards are to high and thats lousy for motherboard and ram life span, the microwave heat and wattage is almost as bad as a magnetron for x2 or SLI and are heavy on the utility bill, that don't help desktop sales any.

posted by : hinzo, 04 February 2009 Complain about this comment
mr

Don't forget that desktops can be cheaply upgraded wheras laptops usually cannot. These numbers do not reflect that.

Laptops are great for checking your e-mail in a hotel room but I wouldn't want to render an HD video or play Bioshock on one.

Desktops are not going anywhere.

posted by : geezer, 17 March 2009 Complain about this comment
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