Chip makers shoot selves in virtual feet

According to IDC's updated forecast, multi-core CPUs and virtualisation will cost the x86 market more than 4.5 million shipments and $2.4 billion in revenue between 2006-2010. Overall x86 shipments, once projected to increase 61 percent by 2010, are now looking more like 39 percent in the same period. IDC reckons that server and component vendors will standardise on quad-core before moving to eight-core technology.

"…the use of multi-core technology in conjunction with server virtualisation tools has a compounding impact on server configurations, and accelerates the ability of IT organizations to exploit the benefits of multi-core technology," says Michelle Bailey, research vice president for IDC's Enterprise Platforms and Datacenter Trends.

"Unlike other previous multi-core introductions that took time to become mainstream as customers changed their application code, virtualization allows customers to fully exploit the improvements in x86 processors immediately, accelerating business benefits and thereby increasing adoption rates."

While the number of CPUs will continue to rise at 25 per cent a year, the number of actual parts shipped will be lucky to hit half this rate due to the increasing adoption of multi-core silicon. IDC adds that the number of virtual servers looks set for a CAGR of more than 40 per cent between 2005 and 2010, when an expected 1.7 million physical servers will be supporting a stonking 7.9 million logical servers. µ

L'Inq
IDC