- Wednesday, 25 November 2009
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A hunch is creativity trying to tell you something - Frank Capra
Bulldozer is off the roadmaps for now
AT THE RECENT AMD analyst day, people noticed that Bulldozer was off the roadmaps and replaced by Fusion. To the twits out there, this was the end of the world, AMD is done, stick a fork in them. They are wrong.
Don't misunderstand, this isn't good news for Bulldozer (BD) and Bobcat at all, nor is it any sign that Fusion, specifically Swift is a stopgap or hack. Both are two completely different products aimed at completely different markets.
As long ago as last summer, word was floating that AMD was getting into a scheduling crunch. The problem is that they went from a handful of development teams to many more, something around two to seven, but it depends on how you count. Some of the problems stem from that, others from other areas.
The biggest crunch is that both Fusion/Swift and Bulldozer were scheduled to come out around the same time, BD was set to tape out next September, and Swift around then as well. AMD didn't have the resources to do both at once. More than six months ago, there were fierce internal arguments over which one would go first.
The thinking was that BD would win back server marketshare, something that they needed badly, and Swift would do the same for enterprise notebooks. Both are aimed at big, lucrative markets where AMD has a low marketshare. Both had very credible arguments as to why they should go first.
We know who won, that is of course Swift, the key question is why. The answer to that is obvious, BD is a mess right now, and it is delayed. How much? Damn good question, that is the part that will make or break AMD. If it is a quarter or two, not the end of the world. If it is 2011 like the most dire predictions I am hearing, well, don't put away that fork just yet.
BD is a quite radical departure from what you are used to seeing in an x86 chip, and if it works, big if currently, AMD has the potential for a great product. The hard left turn in chip design is course a potential minefield, and that is what led to Swift winning as much as the delays.
In the end, there wasn't enough to do both at the same time. Swift is a fairly safe bet, basically Griffin Mark 2++, done with proven (by then) components. Low risk. BD is high risk, late and potentially a non-starter. The internal fight turned out to be a non-issue.
Given that, AMD did right. They still have time to put BD back on track and get things going. Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but for the next year, all we have is the results of the decision to make Swift first. ยต
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IIRC the codenames, Bulldozer is supposed to be laptop, not server.

Either way, AMD with no credible mainstream chip is AMD going bankrupt in short order.
Fusion is delayed to end 2009 and Bulldoser is put in the freezer.
A good thing they already published SSE5 specifications ;-)
So the only thing we will see in 2008 AND 2009 is an 45nm version of Phenom?
I will be surprised if they still get their Phenom sold in 2009.
Prices will probably be much worse than the Athlon64 prices now.
While world serves up more of same, over & over, ULTIMATE lacks really SOLID chipset. All computers are falling from TOP, as there is NO Top Service.

Intel sells its TOP? for 4X more than AMD, yet specifictions are identical, so AMD should blast out, yet who wants what they already have? ULTIMATE is Challenge & until Challenge is Meet, there won't be much more except hype.

thomas s von drashek
Maybe not the best place for this, but it just popped into my head and I needed a quick outlet: What about the 4x4 platform? Has anyone tried the new quads on it to see if it works? 

With Chipzilla dropping the ball on SkullTrail the 4x4 might be the only enthusiast-class 8-core platform.

I never got familiar with the product as it sounded hokier than the way Intel was doing their quads so I don't even know what socket those things used...
Bulldozer is the server part. Bobcat was supposed to be the laptop part.
Charlie,

Your description of the AMD roadmap doesn't match AMD's public position from the July 26, 2007 Technology Analyst Day. Slide 22 of the Phil Hester/Bob Drebin presentations clearly show the Falcon Fusion family has a Bulldozer core and the slide clearly says "first Fusion processor."

AMD has more problems than it's willing to admit to and swapped a less capable Fusion processor for the one they promised. But as long as they can say that a "Fusion" chip ships in 2009, that's all they care about. I guess performance doesn't matter to them anymore.
...until I spoke with our AMD rep. Bulldozer is being initially marketed toward the portable systems, but the BD core design will be the next evolution of all of AMDs processors.

This news and the slip of HT3 really has me questioning AMD's leadership.
I'm a bit confused - AMD just now realized both products would be taping out at around the same time? And just now they realize they may not have the rsources.... Is there noone in the company who does long range planning?

Sounds like another TLB creative interepertation - you know the one that only applied to 2.4+ GHz chips and THAT was the reason you didn't see high clocks.

I wish the press would be a bit more vigorous and ask the difficult questions and not just blindly accept and publish the AMD party line.
Your information is out-dated. AMD had an Analyst Day last week where they showed updated roadmaps, to which Charlie referred.
AMD did not just realize that both Bulldozer & Swift would be taping out around the same time, of course they knew that before hand. What they didn't know was that due to the financial hardship they've had over the last year+ they wouldn't be able to invest the money in R&D and in upgrading their fabs/building new ones to support the simultaneous release of both these products to volume manufacturing.
AMD did change the roadmap, but for the worse (using an older, less capable processor core) AND acted like nothing had happened. That was the point. Charlie should have noted that the Bulldozer core is not just for servers, it was also the next generation of notebook cores and was supposed to launch in 2009, but has been delayed. All the while AMD is promising better execution - but it's promising the better execution to a new, lower standard. AMD lowered the bar to make it easier to jump over, not to deliver the best products to compete with Intel.