- Thursday, 12 November 2009
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Nothing moves the memory market quicker than FUD - Andrew Norwood, Dataquest
Intel has some headaches with 45 nanometre technology
THERE IS SOMETHING going on around Intel's 45 nanomete process, far too many rumours, and far too many half decent explanations. None of the rumours are firm, none are validated, but they all point to the same place.
What are those rumours? The first one was that Intel is having problems ramping the 45/High-K/Metal process to volume so there is going to be a second 45nm non-High-K/non-Metal process to run the lower end volume chips.
The problem with this one is that changing the process like that would basically need a complete relayout of the chip. Unless this was planned from day one, the effort involved would be huge, expensive, and very unlikely to happen.
The next bit is sort of related, word is trickling out that Intel scrapped a whole run of Harpertowns. What a 'run' is defined as is beyond me, but it gets ads up to the same point as the 45nm volume problems. This one has been neither second sourced or denied, but then again, Intel tends not to talk about such things.
This leads us to problem, availability, or lack thereof, of Harpertowns. They are nowhere, and you can't order a system from a major vendor for love nor money. A month after launch of mainstream parts, this is not what Intel usually wants, or is it?
The official explanation is that high demand is causing the shortage, coupled with AMD's Barcelona flameout, but Intel didn't say that part. High demand is there, but it should not cause a complete sellout of a very mainstream part like Harpertown.
Last up we have pricing. One of the rumours going around is that Intel priced Penryn parts low when it was expecting Barcelona to come out. Since that didn't happen, and it couldn't backpedal on price, it is keeping 65nm alive to prop up prices.
This one is the closest to complete bull that I know of. The 45nm tech has much lower die sizes, so production costs go way down, even if wafer costs go up a bit. On top of that, Intel has the equipment, so idling it is madness by any stretch of the imagination. If you entertain the notion that it is making them and putting them in a warehouse, just keep in mind that CPUs age about as well as fish sitting on a shelf. I put the odds of Intel stopping things voluntarily at around zero.
Intel has of course said that volume 45nm parts are on schedule for "Q1", and that nothing has changed. That is partially true, partially false. On the surface, it is true, things are set for Q1, but the nothing changed part is not close to right. The launch went from CES to late Q1, so it slipped about a quarter with no change in name.
So, what do we have? Reports of two processes, scrapped runs, low availability, pricing games and a quarter delay that is not a quarter delay. What does it all mean? Without concrete explanations, not much at all.
That said, there are too many things coming in from too many places for me to think all is well, but nowhere near enough for me to believe that anything is definitively wrong. ยต
* INTEL SAYS in an update that supplies have resumed in the last few days.
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..so even if Intel had manufacturing issues with 45nm tech it won't change anything. Even a 3-6 months delay and slowdown won't affect Intel sales by much nor disappoint people a lot, simply because there is nothing better on the horizon. And when Nehalem gets released either Q3/Q4 '08 or Q1/Q2 '09, it will still get the market by storm, crushing any AMD competing products on the market. 
If Intel has to slow down.. AMD is slowed down already and unable to recover. 
Geeee Charlie,

If it had been AMD you would believe all stories wouldn't....
Oeps, you proven that last time...

But this time it's Intel, so it can't be true....

Man you are biassed.
Having a slow day there Charlie. This story doesn't really have any useful information at all.
Not sure what you mean by "Harpertowns are unavailable a month after launch". You can order Xeon 54XX based rack servers from HP & Dell with estimated shipping dates in early January.
Harpertowns ARE available - configure a server yourself here: http://configure.us.dell.com/dellstore/config.aspx?c=us&cs=555&l=en&oc=MLB1672_MLK&s=biz 

Please all rush out and buy loads for Christmas. :-)
Sorry, Charlie I don't buy it. Not for a second. 45nM will go mobile, and go mobile quick. I'm thinking less power, cheaper, quicker, and more chips on a 300mm wafer. 

INTC is sandbagging, again. Penryn, with the way its clocking, could have been released at 3.73. X48 is being "delayed" to allow partners to clear X38 inventory, and then this?

Nah, there is no competition, exept Laptops. They are just laying down on the desktop front/server front, It's a lock. The rest is out there with area 51 and alien abductions.

SPARKS
Erm, dell uk will sell you a harpertown based box and if you go across the pond newegg claim to have a whole load of 5400 series cpu's in stock (at time of posting these links)

eg, http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16819117143

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16819117137

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16819117151
The doormouse said Charlie and Mike have been inhaling the magic
blue CPU smoke again.

Doormouse also said that Cyrix is having problems with their 150nm process, but NexGen was on track even after finding a pair of pantyhose
with a "run" in them on the wafer line.

So now you know, CD, what a run is.
I would rather see intel get their parts right then have eratta errors or something worse go wrong with their CPU products.

This isn't the same silicon anymore either. It would be foolish to think everything will work out perfectly with new technology. This just puts AMD at an even worse position since they are not anywhere near 45nm and probably will be forced to Quasi-legally mimic intel to the best of their ability.

Headaches? I would call this par for the course.
Umm... Interesting.... Well, we see how this plays out in the next 4 month, plus or minus a few weeks.
No Harpertowns? Bullshirt

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24155014
Maybe one of these days, Charlie will bother to check the OEM system ordering websites to second source these kinds of rumors.

HP DL360 and DL380:
http://h71016.www7.hp.com/dstore/ctoBases.asp?ProductLineId=431&FamilyId=2421&jumpid=re_R251... (ships 1/4/08)
http://h71016.www7.hp.com/dstore/MiddleFrame.asp?page=config&ProductLineId=431&FamilyId=2422... (ships 1/4/08)

Dell 1950 and 2950:
http://configure.us.dell.com/dellstore/config.aspx?c=us&cs=04&kc=6W300&l=en&oc=becwy... (ships 1/3/08)
http://configure.us.dell.com/dellstore/config.aspx?c=us&cs=04&kc=6W300&l=en&oc=becwx... (ships 1/3/08)

IBM also has Harpertown systems listed, but they don't quote shipping times.
Let's hope that Intel will get Penryn out in time or it will ruin some good comp upgrade plans for me. I hope AMD's downfall isn't the reason to this possible delay.
If it's gotten to the point where Intel has complete control over the top-end stuff in the market, then they can control the pricing there.

At that point, (provided no competition from competitors) they could stock up 45nm CPUs and sell them at a later date at a high price.

But even in the server space there is pressure from SUN and IBM with their respective chips, so I'd have to imagine that these problems are with ramping the product.

Either there is a flaw in the chip design, or problems from the manufacturing process, or both.
It sure would be nice if news organizations would remain news organizations. Why publish rumors? Its a simple rule follwed by reputable news orgs all over the world only publish what can be verified. i think I can guess where these rumors originate and they are not from Intel. So who has the most to gain from deflecting attention from thier troubled selves Hmmmmm?
While I enjoy a good rumor as much as the next person - perhaps you could put the word RUMOR in the article title? Yes I know it isn't as sensational as not mentioing this in the title and mentioing it later on, but wouldn't this be a bit better?

Also if you could just not bother writing up the obvious 'tin foil hat theories' (like 2 45nm processes) that would make things quicker to read, especially not having to stop after spitting my coffee all over the place while reading these 'rumors'. 

Much appreciated,,,,
Typical AMD fanboy drivel. "Since Intel wont deny it, it must be true!" . What idiocy! Just do me a favor, try writing about something you actually know about! Also, go buy a Phenom and get out of the Intel bashing business. Completely biased journalism. Oh I forgot, the Phenom is a POC!
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Intel-039-s-Penryns-Going-Down-Yorkfield-Delayed-Due-to-Board-Issues-74798.shtml