Hardware slump predicted

MORE TIN makers are going to crash and burn with three of the top 10 PC makers being squeezed out of the market by 2007, Gartner has repeated for the third time so far this month.

This prediction is from the latest bit of crystal ball gazing from the analyst outfit Gartner. The Mystic Big G behind the curtain said that slower growth and reduced profits are likely to squeeze tin makers until their pips squeak.

Gartner did not name any candidates for departure but suggested many are vulnerable. In fact the only one that Gartner had a nice word to say was the Great Satan of Hardware, Dell, claiming it was the only consistently profitable global computer vendor in the last several years.

The list of names at the top are Dell, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Fujitsu, Fujitsu Siemens, Toshiba, NEC, Apple, the Chinese company formerly known as Legend and Gateway.

Interestingly the Big Wizard did mention the PC divisions of Hewlett-Packard and IBM being vulnerable to being spun off if their drag on margins and profitability were deemed too great by their parent companies. Also, although many may not have heard of it, China's Lenovo will probably be a winner due to its good local market and low operating costs, Gartner said.

However things will get better before the seven horsemen of the PC apocalypse ride, predicts Big G. In fact 2005 should be a reasonably strong year for PC vendors as many replace their aging PCs.

Gartner has now repeated its tin litany three times in one month. And according to Lewis Carroll in the Hunting of the Snark, that must make it true. µ