Why Nintendo Wii will succeed

YESTERDAY and today, the virtual lines have been humming with news of the launch date and prices for the Nintendo Wii console. That would be the Wii "gaming console", as opposed to the forthcoming PS3 and the HD DVD drive equipped Xbox 360s - all of which are transmogrifying into multimedia, do-it-all entertainment hub-type things.

And I have no complaints with that - apart from the price tags, of course. And the lack of availability of said consoles and said HD-DVD drive add-ons. And the almost complete lack of high-def material to play on them. But, apart from those minor obstacles, I have no problem with them becoming these bloated uber-entertainment HALs of the living room. The idea of having one device to play games and watch high-def movies and get online is great - until of course you have to pull rank on your kids and lock them under the stairs for a six or seven hours. Every day.

The Wii, with its fantastically innovative motion-controller, might not have high-def anything in the wings and maybe that's exactly what's going to keep it in the running as a popular games console. Gaming is at the heart of the Wii whereas the others have decided to diversify. While gaming will be a part - a key part - of the PS3, for instance, Sony's eye is on the "big picture" whereby it will displace standalone DVD/Blu-ray players in the living rooms of every home. In monetary terms - this is a much bigger pot of gold than just gaming. Apart from high-def, is the gaming experience going to be radically different from current consoles? Probably not. Better looking, yes, but a departure for the player? No. It'll still be all arthritic thumbs.

If you believe the analysts, then the Wii is going to stay third in the console kerfuffle on the way. Yankee Group didn't exactly stick its neck out with the prediction that the PS3 would take pole position against the Xbox 360 but, like all those in the crystal ball gazing game, said that it would be a narrow victory - at least in the US. Of course, since that prediction, Sony announced the big European delay until March so I figure someone there is relieved that they stuck to predicting the US, and not the global market. Regardless, Wii was placed in third and that's not unfair.

After all, the Xbox 360 has a massive lead and a HD-DVD add-on is only going to accelerate sales. Nintendo knows its market though which is why keeping things simple and concentrating on gaming, and revolutionising the gaming experience, is going to help it hit its ambitious target of four million units by the end of this year. When you consider that it's due out in the US on November 19th and in Japan on Dec 2nd, that's some sales target. What's going to help it along is the price: £115 (c. $215) in Japan and £133 ($250) in the US. Now these prices are not a surprise, at least not for INQ readers which would have seen them revealed back in May.

And for what you are getting - and it is a lot - that's peanuts.

For the sheer fun of waving your arm at the screen to decapitate a foe, instead of frantically tapping combos - badly - on traditional controllers, even £150 will be not be asking to much. I say '£150' since the UK Wii launch details are due out tomorrow so don't be surprised to find the price magically increase, as usual. Still, it's cheap enough for any PS2 or Xbox 360 owner to investigate without breaking the bank. Wii is not going to dislodge loyal fans of either and that was never its goal since Nintendo is happy to plough its own deep trough of fanatics. A cheap price tag - and cheaper games - makes it a very attractive curiosity though.

The Wii will have 25 new titles by the end of the year - 15 or so at launch - and there's a backlog of classics being lined up for cheap downloads (£4-£8 a pop). However, more tellingly is that for Nintendo to stick to its sales predictions, the production lines must already be greased up and underway. In contrast, Sony recently admitted that PS3 production hasn't yet started, despite looming deadlines. In fact, those 'component' problems were what bumped Europe - like the humble Wii - into third on the launch roster. The one thing you can be sure off when the PS3 does launch, are shortages. Big shortages.

If Wii can rack up four million sales by the end of the year then its success through 2007 is assured. In fact with no PS3 in Europe for awhile, I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthier-than-expected European Wii market develop.

Cheap, innovative, available soon, it's not so much a question of Wii, but Wii not? µ