Will 60% of AMD's Q1-05 shipments be Sempron?

THE SNAPSHOT section of the DigiTimes newswire reports sources saying that the AMD Sempron processor, which was launched to compete head-on with the Prescott Celeron from Intel Corp, "may" make up 60% of the chip maker's Q1-05 production.

During the Q&A session of the AMD Q2-04 earnings Webcast, the chip maker didn't reveal when it anticipated K8 output to exceed that of K7. AMD did say though that it expected K8 revenues to be higher than K7's by year-end.

We shouldn't forget that the twelve model Sempron line-up includes six devices based on the K8 core - the flagship desktop model and five mobile solutions. Also, as the months roll by, new K8 based Semprons are sure to be added to the line-up. If that 60% figure should prove accurate, 50% of the chip maker's processor output could still be K7 based. If we ignore what unnamed sources are saying and just use our common sense, come 2005, six years after the company's seventh generation platform was launched, K7 based product will still be critical to AMD.

It doesn't look like AMD is in any hurry to migrate its customers to the K8 platform. If anything, the company seems quite happy to extend K7's life for as long as volume sales can be justified.

Even though both versions of Sempron showed its Prescott based counterpart a clean pair of heels in overall performance, none of the reviews that I have read showed the integrated graphics processor (IGP) performance using the K8 based 3100+ Sempron. Athlon 64 reviews that measured IGP performance showed 2D performance was fine. But 3D benchmarks results appear to be worse than the K7 based integrated graphics king - Nvidia's Nforce 2. So for the core logic manufacturer that is able to innovate and deliver, there's a lucrative K8 integrated graphics opportunity waiting to be seized. Also, because the socket 939 platform has a dual channel memory architecture, which socket 754 doesn't have, when socket 939 Semprons become available, that may give IGP solutions based on that platform the performance boost that could kick its older K7 sibling into touch. It might also be the time that Nvidia launches its first K8 IGP, which is likely to be based on the DirectX 9 compatible FX5200 chip. (1).

If the K7 Sempron should still prove popular in 2006, AMD could re-spin the Thoroughbred core one last time by increasing the front side bus frequency to 400MHz. The Barton core by that time would no doubt be sitting on the back burner. Let's not forget that AMD had a silicon-on-insulator (SOI) design planned for Barton. So if the K7 architecture is still alive and kicking in 2006, it's anybody's guess what a K7 revamp might look like.

Another thing to consider is this. AMD's 300mm Dresden Fab should come on line in 2006. So what will happen to its 200mm counterpart? It could be converted into a flash memory fab, just like what happened to the Austin, Texas based Fab 25. If that wasn't viable and capacity at its 300mm fab was constrained because of demand, and the 130nm K7 was still being produced in volume, why not fab K7 on 90nm SOI and make hay while the Sun still shines?

With all its resources, it has to be embarrassing for the chip giant that AMD continues to bring to market products that are generally cheaper, better and faster than what the 800lb gorilla can deliver. For AMD, the planets are coming into alignment. For Intel - on the technology front - they're still very far apart. µ

See Also
AMD confirms Sempron model number changes
AMD takes Intel head on in Celeron Sempr0n match
AMD wins huge Lenovo deal in China
AMD CPU shipments due for a rapid increase
AMD's SOI Sauce Bartons not much wok

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