Research conducted by analysts at Analysys finds that cellular voice services might be more applicable to developing markets.
Report co-author, Mark Heath,notes: "The prospects for WiMAX in developing markets will be severely limited by a lack of PCs, low disposable incomes and the growing strength of cellular services. Cellular voice services will be much more appealing to most people, particularly as handsets are available very cheaply."
The reports notes that, for example, GDP per capita in the USA is between 7 and 25 times greater than countries such as Poland, Algeria, China, India and Pakistan. Such disparities put major constraints on the revenue that will be spent on telecommunications in the poorer countries.
Likewise, the lack of PCs will limit demand for Internet access in developing markets. PC penetration in the USA is over 75%, compared with 6% in Bulgaria, 5% in Panama and less than 2% in India and Kenya. Cellular voice services are much more likely to be popular in these places, the reports suggests.
In fact, cellular penetration is already growing rapidly in developing markets, and taking a significant share of the limited disposable income, the report says.
Another report co-author, Alastair Brydon, notes: "Mobile penetration in Pakistan rose from 9% in July 2005 to 24% in July 2006, fuelled by falling prices of handsets and services. This will provide a platform for mobile operators to develop a range of non-voice services, which will further suppress the need for WiMAX." ยต
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research.analysys.com