What Microsoft's ISO loss on OOXML means

MICROSOFT'S LOSS yesterday in the ISO/IEC JTC1 vote on fast-track approval of OOXML wasn't as close as it might have been, but that doesn't mean that the threat that Microsoft might yet succeed in imposing OOXML on the world is over.

ISO issued a press release that summarized the results of the vote on OOXML. ISO's press release begins:

"A ballot on whether to publish the draft standard ISO/IEC DIS 29500, Information technology - Office Open XML file formats ¹ , as an International Standard by ISO (International Organization for Standardization) and IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) has not achieved the required number of votes for approval."

The Voting Results

According to ISO rules, Microsoft needed Yes votes from at least two-thirds (67%) of Participating (P level) ISO member countries, along with No votes from no more than one-fourth (25%) of all ISO member countries, both P level countries and Observer (O level) countries, in order to have its complex draft OOXML specification immediately approved for fast-track adoption as an ISO certified international standard for document formats.

There are 41 ISO P level countries, including both 30 long time "original" members and 11 recently joined "newbie" members. In addition, there are 46 ISO O level member countries, including 21 original members and 25 newbie members. Overall, there are 87 ISO member countries of ISO/IEC technical committee JTC1, Information Technology.

ISO's press release stated the voting results: "Neither of these criteria were achieved, with 53 % of votes cast by national bodies participating in ISO/IEC JTC 1 being positive and 26 % of [all] national votes cast being negative."

Microsoft might have pulled this off, but didn't. The vote wasn't even very close, as one can see by the ballot numbers. Here are the ISO P level countries' voting results:

Type	Number	Abstain	Count	Yes	Pct	No	Pct
Original	30	8	22	8	36%	14	64%
Newbie	11	1	10	9	90%	1	10%
Total	41	9	32	17	53%	15	47%

Microsoft would have needed 22 Yes votes to carry the P level countries' balloting with 67%. Instead, it only got 17 votes, or 5 votes short of the required two-thirds majority.

There's been speculation that Microsoft "encouraged" many of the countries that recently upgraded to P level status on the ISO JTC1 Information Technology committee. Coincidentally or not, almost all of the newbies voted Yes in favour of approving OOXML, but the P level vote would still have fallen short even if all of the recent arrivals had voted Yes.

The overall vote by all ISO member countries, P level countries as well as O level countries, was much closer to the threshold Microsoft needed to support approval of OOXML. Here are the overall voting results:

Type	Number	Abstain	Count	Yes	Pct	No	Pct
Total	87	18	69	51	74%	18	26%

Had one or two O level countries voted Yes on OOXML instead of voting No or abstaining, Microsoft would have reached the 75% threshold of approval for OOXML on overall voting results.

However, without also at least five more Yes votes among P level countries, Microsoft still would have fallen short of OOXML approval. It's worth noting that, if two or more P level countries had voted Yes instead of abstaining, more than five additional P level countries' votes would have been required, because the total number of votes that counted would have increased.

Microsoft's Spin

Microsoft's press release about the outcome of the ISO vote on OOXML starts in deep denial about the result, as it's headlined:

"Strong Global Support for Open XML as It Enters Final Phase of ISO Standards Process."

Uh huh, losing is really winning. Hah!

The Vole spins so fast that it achieves faster than light speed and enters a parallel universe, moving from denial of rejection into a fantasy world where countries can't wait to support its vision for a global monopoly on office document formats.

Microsoft ignores its defeat in the P level countries' balloting, focusing instead on the overall ISO vote that included both P level and O level member countries. Tom Robertson, the Vole's general manager for [denial of] Interoperability and [subversion of] Standards, is quoted in the press release:

"We are extremely delighted to see that 51 ISO members, representing 74 percent of the qualified votes, have already voiced their support for ISO ratification of Open XML, and that many others have indicated they will support ratification once their comments are resolved in the next phase of the ISO process."

The Vole's press release misrepresents the comparison of the ISO vote on OOXML with ISO's earlier votes to approve the Open Document Format (ODF) as an international standard.

ODF was quickly approved by all 32 P level country members of ISO/IEC JTC1 with no abstentions or No votes. Because there weren't any No votes on ODF, no subsequent ballot resolution meeting was required.

However, Microsoft compares the number of those 32 P level countries' votes with the 51 general ISO/IEC JTC1 membership votes from both P level and O level countries for OOXML.

Microsoft is confident that it will ultimately prevail at the ISO ballot resolution meeting in February 2008. Robertson said:

"This preliminary vote is a milestone for the widespread adoption of the Open XML formats around the world for the benefit of millions of customers. Given how encouraging today's results were, we believe that the final tally in early 2008 will result in the ratification of Open XML as an ISO standard."

In an interview with the Seattle PI on Tuesday, Robertson also spun allegations that Microsoft packed national standards body meetings with its business partner affiliates, saying:

"There are more voices in the community that are expressing their view on the specification and its standardization. We think it's a good thing. And we would object, really, to the assertions on the part of ODF advocates that that's a bad thing, that these additional voices shouldn't be added to the mix."

Apparently he didn't have anything to say about browbeating or bribing business partners to show up to vote at ISO standards meetings, or about astroturfing. Some things just can't be spun.

What Happens Next

In its press release, ISO outlines how it will proceed from here:

"Comments that accompanied the votes will be discussed at a ballot resolution meeting (BRM) to be organized by the relevant subcommittee of ISO/IEC JTC 1 (SC 34, Document description and processing languages) in February 2008 in Geneva, Switzerland."

ISO writes that, if enough P level countries change their votes from No or Abstain to Yes, such that the required P level countries' two-thirds majority in favour is met, OOXML might still be approved for fast-track adoption as an ISO standard:

"The objective of the meeting will be to review and seek consensus on possible modifications to the document in light of the comments received along with the votes. If the proposed modifications are such that national bodies then wish to withdraw their negative votes, and the above acceptance criteria are then met, the standard may proceed to publication."

If OOXML is not approved for fast-track adoption by ISO, then the longer process of normal ISO standards development will still remain an option for Microsoft and its supporters, ISO says:

"Otherwise, the proposal will have failed and this fast-track procedure will be terminated. This would not preclude subsequent re-submission under the normal ISO/IEC standards development rules."

If all 41 ISO P level countries vote either Yes or No, with no abstentions, at the ISO ballot resolution meeting in February 2008, Microsoft will need 28 Yes votes to prevail. It got 17 Yes votes in this first ballot, and 9 countries abstained.

Even if all of the countries that abstained eventually vote Yes, this means that Microsoft will have to convince at least two countries that stood up to its pressure and voted No this time around to change their votes to Yes, either between now and February 2008 or during that meeting.

Microsoft is going to have to seriously address most of the issues, problems and concerns that have been raised about OOXML, if it really wants to see it approved by ISO/IEC JTC1.

Merging OOXML into ODF would perhaps be the best outcome for all concerned, especially consumers, but we're certainly not going to be holding our breath for Microsoft to agree to that. µ

¹Definition and history of ISO/IEC DIS 29500, from ISO's press release:

"ISO/IEC DIS 29500 is a proposed standard for word-processing documents, presentations and spreadsheets that is intended to be implemented by multiple applications on multiple platforms. According to the submitters, one of its objectives is to ensure the long-term preservation of documents created over the last two decades using programmes that are becoming incompatible with continuing advances in the IT field."

"ISO/IEC DIS 29500 was originally developed as the Office Open XML Specification by Microsoft Corporation which submitted it to Ecma International for transposing into an ECMA standard. Following a process in which other IT industry players participated, Ecma International subsequently published the document as ECMA standard 376."

"Ecma International then submitted the standard in December 2006 to ISO/IEC JTC 1, with whom it has category A liaison status, for adoption as an International Standard under the JTC 1 "fast track" procedure. This allows a standard developed within the IT industry to be presented to JTC 1 as a Draft International Standard (DIS) that can be adopted after a process consisting of a one-month review by the national bodies of JTC 1 and then a five-month ballot open to all voting national bodies of ISO and IEC."

L'INQS
ISO press release
Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Washington Post
Seattle PI
ConsortiumInfo

See Also
Microsoft brings in rent-a-mob
Vole's smoking gun ISO OOXML memo surfaces
Microsoft admits bunging cash to partners
ISO boards face OOXML deadline pressure
More ISO OOXML news ahead of today's deadline
Microsoft accused of more OOXML standards fiddling
France suggests merging OOXML into ODF