Polysilicon shortage looms in second half

MARKET RESEARCH FIRM Future Horizons said in its monthly report that silicon substrates are suffering from a shortage of polysilicon allied to tight eight inch wafer capacity.

That, said the firm, means that prices have already started to rise, and there is no excess capacity in these markets. Said Malcolm Penn, principal analyst at FH: "The second half of 2007 should prove very interesting indeed. The smart money is on tying down security of supply now."

Meanwhile, he reported that 12-inch (300mm) wafers now represent 30.8 per cent of all MOS capacity, up from 18.8 per cent in the same period last year. The eight inchers have fallen to 59 per cent share, down from 64 per cent in Q4 of 2005. Fab growth is now largely at the 12-inch wafer level, which Penn said was "following the well trodden path of the prior 200mm and 150mm wafer transitions."

While there is currently oversupply, that is not expected to be a problem throughout this year. "Were utilisation rates higher than they are, it would almost certainly be a precursor for second half year under supply," said Penn. "As it is, based on current investment trends, capacity looks having an essentially neutral impact on the 2007 market.

L'INQ
Future Horizons