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With AMD Radeon 6000 series GPUs coming, what happens with Nvidia?

Analysis GTX480 needs more shaders
Tue Oct 05 2010, 08:39

WITH LESS THAN three weeks to go before the expected launch of the - now not ATI but just AMD - Radeon HD6000 series, that is, Southern Islands GPUs, the question remains, what should Nvidia do?

Or rather, what can it do quickly. The Green Goblin's new architectures for later during 2011 are not the subject here, but what happens before this Christmas shopping season.

First, let's think about what AMD might come up with on 19 October - an HD6770 with overall performance akin to the current HD5850, and an HD6870 with possibly up to 30 per cent higher performance than the default HD5870, or about 15 per cent above the souped-up HD5870 overclocked editions. Then, the dual GPU version might follow a month later, still well in time for last minute Christmas geek sales.

Now, if the HD6770 really performs this well, it will outpace any Geforce GTX460 in the market, including the factory overclocked editions. In fact, even AMD's new midrange card will likely perform at a level equal to the default reference GTX470 designs.

But the HD6870 might cause even more of a stir. Even if it's just a quarter faster than the reference HD5870, it will be hitting benchmark scores above those of all GTX480 cards. And as we've seen many times before, a win at the top of the GPU sweepstakes has a 'waterfall' effect that benefits the lower-end product sales for the 'champion' vendor, too.

So, what can Nvidia do to counter this AMD attack? At the GTX460 level, enabling more shaders - up to 384 - on the GF104 die might help quite a bit as long as Nvidia doesn't lower the clock frequency to reduce the heat. If a GTX480 GF100 die has up to 512 shaders, then the three-quarters of that on the GTX460 should allow for up to 384 shaders.

Of course, Nvidia had no intention to enable those earlier, partly to keep the yields up and also not to cannibalise GTX470 sales. The extra 13 per cent or so speed-up from the extra shaders would keep the competition quite even with any HD6770 part.

The situation is more complex for Nvidia on its competitive approach to the expected HD6870. There is nothing to replace the GTX480 GF100 die until well into next year, so a combination of tweaks like a bit of extra clock speed and an improved memory controller, as well as enabling all 512 shader cores in selected GTX480 chips, that is, GTX485 or such editions, would make good sense.

Even if the combined advantages only bring, say 10 per cent extra real performance, it would help Nvidia stay close to AMD. But, unlike the GTX460 versus HD6770 case, the high end battle here would likely still be won by AMD whatever the case. Yet, the difference would be so small that Nvidia shouldn't have a major problem selling the updated GF100 to its faithful fans.

However, the same might not be the case with the dual-GPU twin GF104 card part, with the Radeon HD6970 expected sooner or later. The dual-GPU twin GF104 card will start to look less and less appealing, as a pair of GF104s will be no match for even an AMD reference dual-GPU part.

Nvidia will have to work out another approach for the top-end dual GPU market, but it probably won't be able to do that until its next generation 28nm chips are ready. µ

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Comments
@Monter

You might as well buy the GTX 550 now or better still, the GTX 560, if you wish to retain all the nVidia features (CUDA, PhysX). But if you want performance at a reasonable price, the 6950 1Gb version should do.

posted by : Meadows, 22 March 2011 Complain about this comment
Wait or buy now?

Hi guys, maybe you can help me.
I've been a nVidia costumer for a long time, and always been satisfied with their cards.
I'm building a new rig and I'm planning on buying the GTX 460 1gb(due to budget limitations), and later on go SLI.
But now I'm reading that the new 6750 and 6770 are going to give much better performance than the GTX 460, and that the price should be similar.
Is this true? Do you think it is worth to wait a couple more months and get the new card?
Appreciate you thoughts.

posted by : Monter, 13 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Ford vs. Chevy

Seriously. I've been building computers for a while now. My first video adapter was an old VGA in a 386DXL (blazing-fast 40MHz!).

The only real trouble I've had with video hardware/drivers lately has been with ATI video not wanting to come out of standby. I've seen 3 computers in the last 6 months where everything will come out of standby except for the video. I haven't seen the same thing with NV.

posted by : Jon, 12 October 2010 Complain about this comment
More On New GPU Names & Models....

thomasxstewart October 10, 2010, 11:33 p.m.
Barts-based SKUs should sit in the HD 6700 series, and Cayman-based single-GPU SKUs in the HD 6800; while the second scheme promotes Barts to the HD 6800 series, and Cayman to the HD 6900 series, pushing the low-volume, high-end Antilles (dual-Cayman) graphics card to the HD 6990 SKU.
drashek

posted by : Moore Pins...., 11 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Maybe i was just lucky.. (so far)

I remember when the bump gate fiasco was hitting the fan so to speak... oddly I never had an issue with the NVIDIA hardware that I had of that generation:

GeForce 8700m GT
GeForce 9800GT

the 8700m is on a Toshiba Satellite X200 series, bought almost 3 years ago now.. and that thing got used a great deal and very heavily. Same story with the the 98000GT, never a hardware issue in 2 years of use (it got retired because it got replaced by a 4xx card).

Maybe I managed to catch the correct chip revision(s) and missed it.

To Westin: GL under ATI/AMD used to be such a catastrophic train wreck that just attempting to get a complicated GL program to work well was a cross of the fingers.. it often felt like that the GL of ATI/AMD was just good enough to play ID games and nothing more. That is not the case now, but there are still some doozy GL bugs under AMD/ATI.. but like I said, now the GL implementation is usable, but compared to NVIDIA, AMD/ATI is still significantly behind (but nevertheless the delta between now and before ATI was bought by AMD has been AMAZING).

posted by : someone, 08 October 2010 Complain about this comment
@ Westin

assertions accompanied by specifics..

for example...

x1950: many games had the bottom-most horizontal row of pixels all rainbow-colored; newer drivers yielded lower performance; no real aa/af-force support; newer drivers caused odd behavior in games, like they'd load windowed instead of full-screen.

4870: newer drivers yielded the odd game-boots-windowed error again; still no aa/af-force support; very bad memory leaks in some games specific to my card (arma2 for example); newer drivers hit or miss with performance.

and yes, with new drivers im careful: uninstall the old ones, drivercleanerpro in safe mode, defrag (if needed), and fresh install.

i love ati hardware, but the software needs some work. going back to nvidia indefinitely without a solution to force aa/af on ati.

posted by : ashantiqua, 08 October 2010 Complain about this comment
FUD or not?

Well, I have been using ATI products for quite a while. The most recent video cardwe bought was NVidia, because, at the time, it seemed like a pretty good value and a pretty good card. But it died due to the Great Bump Catastrophe.

Even if you want to say that ATI drivers are inferior to NVidia's, is anyone going to say that ATI has *ever* released defective-due-to-incompetent-engineering hardware, almost guaranteed to fail because it can not stand up to the normal use for which is was ostensibly designed and marketed?

But are ATI drivers really that bad? I have had only one issue ever: a driver update caused graphical glitches in No One Lives Forever 2. But the next driver update fixed it.

These assertions of the low quality of ATI drivers mean nothing to me without these assertions being accompanied by specifics.

posted by : Westin, 07 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Drivers.

Let's get two things out of the way now.

1) Historically, ATI/AMD GL drivers have been a train wreck on both MS-Windows and Linux

2) For the past 2 years they have improved alot.. but:

Comparing the OpenGL support of the NVIDIA vs ATI driver, NVIDIA is still much better. In the realm of GPGPU, as much as I like OpenCL, CUDA wipes the floor with OpenCL, and make a guess which implementation of OpenCL is better anyways: NVIDIA.

None of that though addresses the games side. So, what do we find here. Well, DX11 games are not that common anyways right now (duh) but NVIDIA does tessellation faster, though right now, that really does not matter a great deal anyways.

I do have to say though this: in the last 2 years or so AMD/ATI has come an incredible long way in OpenGL support (both Linux and MS-Widnows). The times are past now that I have to say: good GL means must be NVIDIA, but still NVIDIA's GL implementation is better.

Additionally, not only is NVIDIA GL better, NVIDIA has more powerful (and interesting) GL extensions than AMD/ATI by far. Even in the DX10 generation (but the DX11 generation hardware is even more severe in the realms of GL).

By the way: although GL4.1 was announced saying all DX11 functionality is now in GL, that is not quite true... but, using NVIDIA hardware and NVIDIA extensions (GL_EXT_shader_image_load_store and GL_NV_shader_buffer_load and GL_NV_shader_buffer_store), then you get all DX11 functionality and then even more and more flexible.

But that is all software, not hardware eh? Too bad the GeForce 4xx series was so late.

posted by : someone, 07 October 2010 Complain about this comment
what's Nvidia too do?

What can it do? With the Bulldozer cores and Fusion design technology, the mid range GPU market is gone. Kaput, finished, end of storey.

Lokk at it this way: AMD is Netflix and Nvidia is Blockbuster.

FUSION technology will aso grab huge market share from Intel because Intel just does not know how to design GPU's. They'll learn as they have in the past learned everytime AMD beat them to market but even a 10% gain in market share will almost double AMD earnings.

Mid range GPU price point subsidizes the the cost of HIGH END GPU's. Oh yeah

GPU Sales subsidises the whole GPGPU concept. Without the volume of of high end, mid range and low end and discrete designs the whole of the GPU supercomputer concept just crashes. Without the competition between AMD/ATI vs Nvidia again the whole concept crashes.

FUSION is game changing technology and Nvidia just is not in the advanced x86 multicore CPU game.

The best thing that could happen to Nvidia is to be bought by Intel.

posted by : rav, 07 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Luck

Having been building computers for myself and my friends for about 15 years, I have encountered very few problems with drivers for any graphics card that I've used.

There are the normal occasional problems if a new game is released, and some specific hardware combinations cause problems, but these are normally resolved quite quickly.

I definatley prefer the ATI (AMD) driver numbering scheme for clarity.

I think the only real problem I've had was getting a 3dfx 5500 to work on a win2k system.

My approxamate card history:
Voodoo
Voodoo2
?
TNT2ultra
3dfx 5500
Ti4200
1950xt
5950 (dual slot huge thing)
4850

+whateer was the best value price/performance at the time of build for others.

No driver issues that didn't resolve themselves in a few weeks, and none critical.

posted by : Fabula, 07 October 2010 Complain about this comment
@Operator Zap

and you think nvidia doesnt have similar problems? the fact they dont tell you about them doesn't mean they aren't there.
besides the problems ATI mentions in their release notes are usually are very specific (only certain windows versions, only certain hardware only at a certain resolution)
I've only had a problem apply to me once, and its great to know what the problem is before spending hours trying to find out what it is.

I've had a ATI since de 9700Pro and am now on my 4th ATI card(hd4870). i wont say I've never had problems but they are usualy few and far between. and never have I had to reinstall windows to get a driver to install. and since AMD changed its policy and recommends that you install new drivers over the old ones, updates have been quick and painless. specially in windows7.

As for linux, you haven't been paying attention. AMD did what linux users have dreamed about for years and released their hardware specs. that allows higher quality opensource drivers to be developed much quicker. AMD is even helping with the developtment itself.
and even their closed source linux drivers have become quit a lot better in the last 2 years.

posted by : The_Countess, 07 October 2010 Complain about this comment
ATI Drivers

My personal experience is that, whenever I bought an ATI branded card, I had no driver issues, but if I bought a partner branded card, like Sapphire, I had all kinds of driver issues.

posted by : Dale LaRoy Splitstone, 07 October 2010 Complain about this comment
15% perf. increase? boring

15% for a new generation? zzzzzz

and yes ati drivers still suck. with my x1950 i had trouble (and i only learned later those cards require a 12v rail of like 18a + or something, which my documentation never mentioned), and my 4870 has had issues too.

still, id buy ati again if, iffy drivers and all, if i could just friggin force aa and af!!!!!!!!!

nothing works like nhancer. radeonpro is a joke.

posted by : ashantiqua, 07 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Another kick in the teeth!

It would be nice to see ATI once again take the lead over NVIDIA, I think many people are tired of NVIDIA's arrogance. Actually Apple, MS, Intel, AMD and a few other companies think if NVIDIA was a person he would be an arrogant prick.
GO ATI GO.

posted by : Nick, 07 October 2010 Complain about this comment
oh the speculation

umm, why do I have a feeling that the next generation of AMD video cards are going to be underwhelming.

And ATI drivers are still bad, people. Or is it the hardware?

My ATI builds, buggy.... My nVidia builds, less buggy.

posted by : dave, 06 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Whats hard to understand?

If people write gb instead of GB or Ghz instead of GHz I find it quite simple to interpret that into the official if pedantic way or writing it.

If you are struggling then maybe find a different hobby or job?

posted by : dear, 06 October 2010 Complain about this comment
If there is nothing wrong with ATI drivers, then why does ATI document the issues?

I had a lot of trouble with ATI drivers myself. That is why I am not going to buy new hardware any time soon.
It does not surprise me a bit that there are some smart asses here who deny everything (like morons who do not know how to write "GHz" or "GB", not to mention that they do not know the difference between GB and GiB).
ATI actually documents the issues! Kudos to ATI for being honest. Read the release notes which come with every new version of the drivers and you can see yourself that there are plenty of serious problems.

ATI drivers for MS Windows are bad. But things are really nasty for ATI's customers who dare to use Linux. ATI should care, because people who turn ATI's drivers with all the bells and whistles down in favor of slower open source drivers are not going to buy the latest and greatest (most expensive) hardware.

posted by : Operator Zap, 06 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Re:People that have issues with drivers?

No offence jason, i`m sure your knowledge on pc`s etc is great but i`ve been using,building,fixing and programming all types of computers since the early 80s on a near daily basis, so i`m quite sure i know all about "building and configuring decent PCs".
Some of my pc using friends too have a surprising amount of knowledge though not as many years experience as myself.
To dismiss us as being ignorant without you yourself knowing us is just silly and wrong.

posted by : I go b00m, 06 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Review only ATI?

5870 announced, 23rd September 2009
5870 in my computer, 2nd October 2009

And that was when I decided to buy it, I could have had it before that. That was because my two 8800GTS decided to succumb to the bump problem within a week of each other.

There were problems after the initial batches, primiarly with production, and mostly with the 5850. The early ones were out just fine. If memory serves, there were fabrication process problems, and the 5850 was flying off the shelves due to price/awesomeness ratio.

I still can't believe my 5870 brand new only costs £20 less than when I bought it a year ago.

posted by : Chris, 06 October 2010 Complain about this comment
wow

display driver stopped responding and has recovered - I have been dealing with this problem with ATI/AMD cards for over a year now. Is it the card? NO - I went as far as to buy to 2 new 5770's and same issue. Driver issue? Windows? Who knows because everyone seems to have a work-around, of which I have tried every single one. Regardless Here I sit in SC2 or WoW and display driver stopped responding and has recovered. But of course thats after the 45 seconds of painful blanket screen. And before it is tagged as the cause, I have ZERO heat issues. I LOVE AMD, but I will have to believe that unless there is a true fix SOON, I will be watching my AMD processor drive my visuals on my next NVIDA card.

posted by : Tom, 06 October 2010 Complain about this comment
ATI Drivers

I have never experienced any problems with any of the ATI Drivers, I've been using ATI's gfx cards since the ATI AIW 8MB video card. It might possibly be the way you're installing the Catalyst or some other type of component issue. Currently running:

ASUS CrossHair III
Phenom II X6 1055 light oc - 3.5ghz
just upped from a 4850 to a gigabyte 5770
6 gb Corsair Dominator GT
G.Skill Phoenix Pro 120gb MLC
1TB Western Digital Black Drive
B-gear enspirer

posted by : David, 06 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Past presents future.

If you go by the 5000 series I expect that AMD will give every reviewer a card, and none will be for sale, and then when a few show up they will cost as much as a small island where you can play crysis life in full res.

So yeah nothing to worry about for nvidia I would say.

posted by : W.-, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
drivers?

I have used both nvidia and ATI in the past few years...
If you have never had trouble updating your drivers you are one lucky son of a gun lol...

Best way to do it is blow away the old ones and use driver cleaner before installing the new ones.

ATI has released a few bad apples in the past year... but none of them fried and gpus...

I went from a ATI 4870 to a GTX275... 2 weeks and I switched back because of image quality differences... they have fixed that now... but alas both make crummy drivers...

I am running a 5870 now and am quite happy... I have taken my chances and done straight upgrades for the past few times and I have no issues.

posted by : yawn, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
People that have issues with drivers?

They are usually folks that know jack about building and configuring decent PCs.

Seen it many many times.

I take them away, rebuild them and the driver issues go away.

posted by : jason, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
blah blah

I couldn`t give a flying fck about nvidia or ati/amd and you ladies can moan about these "winers" (sic) complaining about ati drivers because they are nv fanboys or whatever but having owned many an ati and nvidia gpu i will say ati have the worst drivers of the two.Dont like that then tough sh!t.It`s my experience and many of my friends experiences too.So suck it down all you ati/amd brown nosers and dry your fuggin eyes.
Have to say the issues are mainly to do with opengl games and nv have their own problems too but all in all ati are worse.Oh and i fix pc`s for my beer funds and have been doing for many a year so i`m quite tech savvy.Yet another fanboys daydreams are ruled out of the argument there then.

posted by : I go b00m, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Drivers? They all work fine.

In the 15+ years I've been building PCs I've never had an issue with domestic ATI or Nvidia cards.

The "ATI drivers suck!" argument is total FUD and sounds just so outdated.

I never had an issue with all the Nvidia cards driverwise and Since I moved to ATI two years ago its all been rock solid since and I update the drivers every month. I even run Crossfire with two OC'd 5770s.

Why did I move to ATI? Just got fed up with Nvidia rolling out the same cards just with a faster clock and a higher model mumber.

Roll on the 6770 becoming a classic GPU.

posted by : jason, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Drivers

I know everyone likes to say Nvidia and Radeon drivers are equal but honestly after using them half and half since the days of the MX440 I'm still firmly in the Nvidia column on drivers. That's not to say Nvidia hasn't had moments where they needed to release a driver update to get a game working 100%, but needing a driver update is a lot different than needing to use multiple driver sets. ATI seems to have a hard time fixing one driver problem without creating another one. I often have to keep 2 or 3 different driver versions on hand depending on what games we are playing that week. ATI seems to make decent cards, but I'm not going to embellish their driver quality track record for the sake of loyalty. That said, I don't have a 5000 series at this point, so maybe they've gotten that smoothed out since AMD has the reigns now.

posted by : Draxanoth, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
Oh boy!

This is so exciting!

Im so curious what Nvidea will do against this. I mean comon. We all have seen them struggle to this very point...

Now with the 6 series... what will they do?? :))

posted by : Eggz, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
AMD and Nvidia both made the occasional bad driver

Now and then some winer says, 'Company x made a bad driver, I hate them and now I only use Company Y.' Just wait, if you're the type to update to the latest drivers it's just a matter of time before you get a crap driver from Company Y.

posted by : mike, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
ATI "driver issues" really Nvidia FUD?

I'm starting to believe more and more that ATI's drivers being crap is really FUD placed by Nvidia. From what I gather from reading and personal experience, neither has better drivers than their competitor.
You got to give credit to ATI though for their incredible consistency. They've been releasing one driver per month for over 7 years now, plus their version numbers make sense and are memorable.
Nvidia on the other hand has both arbitrary release cycle and version numbers, plus most of their releases are actually non-WHQL beta drivers. They're no good if you try to recall wether 197.83 was better than 197.67 in this game... or was it 193.12? Whatever, let's up the major version about 70 to 250 with the next relase.

@Cartman: External monitor... sounds like you're on a laptop. Your manufacturer might have put measures in place to keep you from installing drivers they haven't approved.

posted by : riDDi, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
What to do?

This situation always happens. AMD outdoes them, then respond later, then AMD ups the ante. Since there are ony a couple of games that use DirectX 10, none of the DirectX 11 cards matter enough to me to replace two energy efficient GeForce 9800GTs. I don't require the latest or fastest video card for gaming. For me, heat and energy use are the biggest issues, as replacing video cards with higher spec cards could lead to power supply replacement and right now, that just isn't necessary for me.

posted by : Frank Black, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
the chips will make the difference

@Cartman
i've not had any problems with ati drivers since running an ati card for the past two and a half years, including installations and configuring external lcd's. maybe it's you that's the problem.
i have had problems however with my laptop failing and ending up hundreds of pounds out of pocket due the nvidia graphics chip inside it not being designed adequately. i consider that 'very very important in day to day life.'

as for what nvidia do next, well, there's little they can do other than release a redesigned gf104 as a replacement for gf100 (this?) next year, with 50% more shaders and performance probably still behind a cayman xt.
nvidia have an overwhelming, and insurmountable until a microarchitecture redesign, performance per mm2 deficit compared to amd.

posted by : terrence malick's mallet, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
The drivers will make the difference

As usual, may be ATI, sorry, AMD, will be very good but its drivers sucks...
On my computer for instance I had to reinstall Windows in order to make the CC install...now I change the driver form Device Manager, don't install the new CC driver directly.. On any nVidia Card that I have meet, I had never had this issues. Also is easier to configure to use an external LCD etc...nVidia might cost more, but you get better drivers along and that is very very important in day to day life.
Another thing, I dislike the fact that new cards are issued on the new brand AMD, I prefer to be called ATI. AMD should stick to its well reputed name in CPU.

posted by : Cartman, 05 October 2010 Complain about this comment
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