Election puts UK in 4G slow lane

ONE THING at least seems sure about the least predictable general election in years - it will put Britain behind in the global race to establish next-generation 4G mobile networks capable of delivering data at up to 100Mbps.

This is because a measure aimed at resolving an industry battle over the required spectrum was dropped in the rush to get legislation through the last session of Parliament.

The measure, in the form of a statutory instrument based on the recommendations of independent spectrum broker Kip Meek, would have allowed operators to migrate 900MHz spectrum from 2G GSM to 3g and 4G LTE (Long Term Evolution) services.

It also gave networks, in return for a limit on the spectrum each could own, indefinite use of 3G channels they acquired on 20-year leases a decade ago. And it freed them to bid for new spectrum as it becomes available. In the near term this means 205MHz in the 2.6GHz band and portions of the 800MHz band that will be freed up by the switch from analogue to digital TV - the so-called digital dividend.

An auction of this spectrum has already been postponed until next year and political change could delay it further. The Conservatives have pledged to review of the role of Ofcom, which is responsible for the auction.

Political minds of all persuasions may be concentrated in these straitened times by the memory of the £22.5 billion raised by the 3G auction of 2000. The new spectrum sale is unlikely to raise anything like that amount, which was widely believed to have been the result of overbidding, but it promises a windfall that might be big enough to speed up political action.

Even so there could be legal challenges. O2 and Vodaphone, according to the Financial Times, were planning to seek a judicial review of the original auction plans. BT is said to be prepared to contest any extension of the 3G licences, which it claims would amount to a subsidy of mobile operators.

Meanwhile increasing demand is stretching mobile networks to the extent that some fear data traffic will slow to a crawl until networks are upgraded. Ofcom reckons UK data traffic rose by 200 per cent last year, and that figure masks far greater local increases in places like London. The Iphone is thought to have pushed O2's network to its limits.

Increased user demand is compounded by the requirement to boost data rates. Clever modulation and Multiple In Multi Out (MIMO) technology have made bandwidth use marvellously efficient but they can only go so far in increasing throughput; to go further you have to increase the channel bandwidth, equivalent to widening a road.

The current specifications for LTE allow for channel bandwidths of up to 20MHz. A new specification called LTE Advanced, due to be published this year or 2011, allows for channels up to 100MHz wide. The maximum is unlikely to be in widespread use but the trend towards wider channels is clear and ominous, because there is little spectrum spare to cater for it.

And established cellular operators are not the only people scrambling for newly available spectrum. Wimax vendors and even broadcasters could also put in bids.

If you think politicians and regulators have a task on their hands sorting out 4G spectrum in Britain, spare a thought for the people trying to harmonise a global mobile infrastructure by reconciling similar issues in countries across the world.

Adlane Fellah, a research director at analysts Maravedis, points out that harmonisation is needed to simplify equipment design, provide economies of scale, enable global roaming, and minimise interference. "At a global level all countries have to agree a single spectrum allocation table," he said in a Yankeee Group seminar.

They also have to agree on modulation schemes and many are swayed by local industry lobby groups. "Some of the national regulators have their own political agendas, trying to push for home-grown technologies. I am thinking about Korea, China, Taiwan and others."

In an attempt to simplify the task, the world has been split into three regions: the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Europe with Africa and Russia. The idea is for each region to harmonise spectrum use and then to harmonise with each other.

Ironically, as with fixed-line broadband, countries with the least existing infrastructure could get the advanced technology early because they don't have the complications of legacy infrastructure.

Britain, even on the most optimistic timetable, is unlikely to see any moves on spectrum allocation until the first half of next year, which puts it behind much of Europe in freeing up spectrum (see chart below).

But Europe looks likely to lose the lead in mobile communications it has enjoyed for the past few years over the US, where aversion to regulation resulted in a patchwork of incompatible systems. US operator Verizon plans to start rolling out an LTE service this year with a claimed download speed of up to 12Mbps. µ