I'd love to come for a drink. Where is the nearest defibrillator? - Mike Magee
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Preview of 2010 storage futures
THIS PAST YEAR saw the SSD entering the marketplace in a big way for the first time, even though the price for performance is still not at the right level to proclaim SSD a mainstream storage device.
On the capacity side, we got the first 2 terabyte 3.5-inch hard disks, while the 2.5-inch small form factor drives are inching closer to a terabyte. But on the speed front, even the fastest 20,000 RPM enterprise hard disks with 150-plus MBps read speeds can't match the raw read speeds from SSD drives - 250MBps on the SATA2 3Gbps drives, and over 350MBps on the first SATA3 6Gbps units. Random write performance is another matter, though, as hard disks are seemingly still a little more consistent there.
Of course, hard disks are still far more vulnerable to mechanical shocks, and new interfaces like SATA3 6Gbps can't help them much due to raw physical media speed limitations, possibly even if the DRAM buffers and caches on-drive increase in size.
SSDs are taking time to catch up in capacity. The 512GB 2.5-inch SSD units that are rolling out right now are coming close to 2.5-inch hard disks, but at nearly order of magnitude higher prices than the HDDs. The 128GB SSD drives, which are in the $300 price range now, are about the best value for money - just store the OS, applications and most critical data there, and have a secondary hard disk for other data, pagefiles and such. Such two-drive solutions seem to be the best option for now, especially since SSD prices have been quite unstable, in fact even going up sometimes, over the past few months.
What about the coming year? Well, as even Seagate has entered the SSD market, now we have all of the major hard disk vendors - those that remain after the massive consolidation that saw the likes of Quantum, Maxtor and IBM's HDD division disappear - offering solid state drive products. New flash manufacturing plants and finer scale processes will of course help improve production volumes and lead to lower prices.
I believe that SSDs have a chance to become mainstream once two major things happen, and I believe they will happen well before the end of 2010. First, the 200-plus GB SSD drives - a capacity sufficient for most mainstream and many high-end users without need for a secondary drive, unless you want to store a lot HD videos on it - will drop to the $200 price level or below. That's still a five times premium over comparable HDDs, but, knowing the performance gains and only a minor increase in total high-end system prices, they will become a worthy investment. Second, the write - especially random writes, the bane of many older SSDs - performance and reliability should further improve, especially on mainstream multi-level cell (MLC) SSD drives, where both of these parameters need improvement.
A good ultra high end PC system in 2010 could then have a RAID 1 mirror setup of two such drives, where the read performance will further double, and any extra capacity needs would be covered by a secondary HDD RAID array composed of cheaper high-capacity hard drives. A less expensive but still well equipped machine would simply have one SSD and one hard disk, with an area on the HDD possibly dedicated for a backup of the SSD.
As for mobile users, slim 2.5-inch and 1.8-inch SSD drives will still be worth paying a premium for, due to their shock proofing as well as lower acoustic and battery loads. This will especially apply to expensive ultra-thin notebooks and netbooks.
We should also see more unconventional solid state drive attempts this year. For instance, if DRAM memory prices plunge again, expect to see PCIe or SATA3 6Gbps based DRAM SSDs for ultrafast reads and writes with battery backup. NOR flash, common in phones, might see renewed consideration for solid state drive applications, but phase change memory (PCM) offers the greatest promise, with good performance, durability, and none of the write degradation issues that plague flash memory.
What about optical disks? Right now, with the USB and eSATA sticks and SSD drives providing all of the capacity for removable storage one would ever need, the Blu-ray storage medium side of the story hasn't had much success. Its primary focus is still on just the HD movie market, and that will continue with the proposed Blu-ray 3D spec - if it takes off, that is. Still, optical drive prices have fallen sufficiently for those willing to pay a bit extra for HD playback. Blu-ray disc writers need to be far cheaper, though. Even though a 50GB Blu-ray rewritable disc might be a little cheaper than a 64GB USB stick, the difference isn't enough to spend far more upfront on the Blu-ray writer drive, even if we ignore the higher speed and far greater simplicity of USB - or now eSATA and USB3 - sticks.
In summary, expect more performance this year as usual, but let's hope for much lower prices on all that expensive solid state storage. I do hope my pricing projections can be beaten, with the end result being even lower prices by the end of 2010. The SATA3 6Gbps and USB3 performance upgrades will also help extract far more real speed, but ultimately it will be PCI Express storage cards, either large wide flash arrays or DRAM multi-channel memory, or a combination of both, that will hold the speed crown. µ
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I had a two-page argument for you, but you know what they say about pictures:
http://xkcd.com/676/
how about 32gb system ram and 8tb spinning drives before ssd's takeover. I wish it was gonna be sooner but it's not.
...buy SSD's. Seriously - the only complaining I see here are from losers that do not make enough money to buy these things.
These people dont buy anything until it is old but justify it because it is cheap.
SSD's WILL ultimately replace rotating storage - we are all watching the end game for rotating media in computers. There will be tricks to keep them out there but ultimately they are too slow and too prone to mechanical failure. Watch and learn.
It is people like me who do make money who do buy new things that allows them to trickle down to the unwashed masses. Im fine that I can do that for you. Yeah, I know the flames I will hear from people who say more money than brains - yep (it is true) - but why then dont you have any money? The same people who shop at used clothing stores will say rotating media is just fine because they are losers...
2 words:
expensive gimmick
we need to make a point of not buying them until they lower the prices or else they will continue to take the p*ss and charge the earth
if not, it will happen again with the next technology and again and again ad infinitum
200GB SSDs will cost $200 average by late 2011 more likely in 2012.
Look @ newegg 120-128 cost $400 avrg now.
imagine multiple drasheks commenting on a single article in 2010. now that is bad!
So it's a no brainer. Sony should start slowing production soon, lol. Looks like betamax all over again.
USB3, with some DRM, should mean we can buy movies/songs and plug our USB stick into our tv/device and watch/listen what we have bought/rented.
Simple. We just need a content delivery system that is easy to use and widely available, any ideas?
SSD - prices going down, capacity going up, given. I agree with your price point of $200 for 128GB, but I would prefer $250 for 250GB, or $300 for 500GB SSD.
I see the USB network backup solution, what a great idea. Just backup your network onto a USB stick, or share your common files there. Can they add a SATA3 port too?
Intel, of course. They want so to lower prices but just can't seem to.
The hdd is going to much harder to replace than people think. The main advantages in ssd are still quite lacking compared hdd.The hdd has taken years to advance to this point, I can remember when 60mb was considered large. They also have grown much more dependable.Cost are low and you can buy 2 or 3 hdd's for the cost of a 128gb ssd.I bought MINI 9 waiting for the day I can get a cheap ssd, but where not much closer now than a year ago. And memory prices are going up. I think it will be years before they are mainstream.
I hope I am wrong, but I just dont see it
@slurge:
How about some brand new semiconductor technology coming to the rescue (Warning, 50Mbyte pdf):
http://focus.ti.com/general/docs/lit/getliterature.tsp?genericPartNumber=sn74s86&fileType=pdf
The SN74S86 boasts of a 7ns tpd, just two of them are good for 140Mbyte/s of parity generation.
The Ceramic Dual Flat Pack with just 80mils of height should easily fit into 2.5" form factor - but don't forget the fans!
..."micro-RAID," or whatever you'd like to call the "two disks in the form-factor of one behind an embedded RAID controller."
A couple years ago, when we were supposed to run into a problem with the rotational stability of "large" 3.5" platters, I expected to see these things from major spinning-disk manufacturers. It's sort of a no-brainer: Stick 2 or 3 independent drives into a package, plonk them behind a RAID controller and you have a much better chance of recovering 100% of your data when the disk finally goes [in your average desktop with someone's life's work on it]. Fewer angry customers, more loyalty, less lost data over all - it just makes sense, right?
Well, apparently not, because we still haven't hit the wall that would render 3.5" casings obsolete. And selling 3 cheap disks for the price of 3 cheap disks must not quite have the margins of selling one big cheap disk. And anyone placing an order for 10,000 pieces probably has a dedicated RAID stack anyway - the real money is in selling to the data warehouses.
In any case, a lot of factors have conspired such that Seagate/WD/Hitachi/whoever_else_is_left have not made that a product. And "RAID" (or something vaguely like it) wound up on the motherboard before it got embedded into the storage device itself.
..but now there are a bunch of enclosures that let you treat two 2.5" disks as one 3.5" casing that you can still get your data off when it keels over. They're cheap as chips, the disk manufacturers aren't assuming more liability, and it generally makes the whole situation properly modular - if "half" your 3.5" module dies, just replace that one and keep the other one spinning until it goes.
The advantage is that while RAID formats have always had questionable compatibility (and mainboard 'fakeraid' systems, questionable compatibility and reliability), every machine can speak SATA.
The disadvantage is that these products are *not* coming from major disk or RAID manufacturers, so I don't know that I can trust them as far as I can throw them. But I expect they'll become massively more prevalent over the course of 2010, any early and obvious bugs will be ironed out, and a standard on-disk format might even emerge - how many different ways do you really need to do RAID 1, anyway?
...
Once there's some determinism, I expect these to start popping up everywhere. Sure you need offsite, sure there's "the cloud", but just like the PC lets you keep working (or at least play Solitaire) when "the server" is down, ain't it a lot easier to fix the problem before it becomes a problem?
...
Of course, I could be wrong again, if SSD reliability suddenly trumps all and phase-change solves the capacity problem.
@ Drashek - Surely RAID5 in an SSD will cripple the already feeble write speed... Read speeds will get even more epic, but write speeds will be appalling since the drive will need to calculate the Parity bits then write them.
Hopefully 2010 also will see a MLC based SSD from Intel in an ExpressCard form factor, finally.
I do need real speed for the still too lame WIndows 7 operating system. The current hard disk speed, even 5400 rpm, is ok for most data.
Intel could easily increase their revenue by 20% by offering a bootable ExpressCard SSD that complements an existing harddrive in a notebook machine. Even Dell and HP would consider to offer such a combination.
The small SSD is too small for a notebook, the bigger one is too expensive. With a smaller bootable ExpressCard drive Intel could hit a sweet spot. For the next 12 to 24 month.
"Best of both Worlds",
when will we get it?
One Real Strong test when Test of ALL Tests is Given. Random Read & Random Write.
Ahso, Packing RAID 5 into one SSD might be good. That SSD just do raid5 automatically, could push SSD over hump.
drashek