The INQUIRER is betting on MS-Yahoo

1 Feb 2008 | 18:05 GMT

By Martin Veitch

ASSUME FOR A MOMENT that Microsoft-Yahoo goes through without a hitch. What does the world look like afterwards? Here’s the book on what might come next.

1/3: Massive consolidation in Microsoft/Yahoo web properties. For now, Microsoft will stay quiet on what happens to all those duplicated efforts but it’s pretty obvious that some cherry-picking will occur. Excellent Yahoo sites like Flickr, Finance and Answers should be safe. Microsoft might decide to keep on both Yahoo Mail and Hotmail but there’s no point in paying all that money and then having scads of replica features. Same goes for the respective ad networks.

Evens: Microsoft-Yahoo is deemed a success. Steve Ballmer has a great get-out here. He can say that he’s playing the long game and that the internet war won’t be won in a day.

7/2: Microsoft starts spending the big cash on more mega-deals. Microsoft is a reluctant acquirer but it needs to find ways to keep growing and even globalisation won’t let it keep up the current pace forever. If a recession comes, lots of people will be showing their frillies to Microsoft and its rock-solid stock. The smart money might bet that Ballmer makes deals in the $1-2 billion mark and eschews other megadeals, however.

8/1: Google buys big for scale. Google likes buying startups but buying for market share wouldn’t fit its culture. Don’t expect Ask.com, for example, to join the G-men anytime soon.

10/1: Microsoft/Yahoo becomes the best search engine out there. Google is the site to go to when you want to find stuff. It’s difficult to make any strong case for Microsoft-Yahoo changing matters. µ

© 2007 Incisive Media Investments Ltd. 2007